Dallas home sales in February inched ahead of last year’s total, up 1%.  While it doesn’t look significant, it broke our recent skid, -9% in December and -10% in January, and provided a measure of optimism for the Spring Market, where we are headed now. These results  would have been more encouraging if supported by a wide distribution of good news across several price points.  Instead, almost all of the heavy lifting came from the luxury side of the market.  The $900’s and $1 Million plus price points saw 10% sales gains in February, while the $200’s to $800’s all registered declines in sales across the 22 county MLS region.

Median prices were flat area-wide. Price pressures persist, not only in Dallas but across the country.  We in the Dallas area have been watching the slow and steady slippage in prices since the market turn this time last year.  My hunch is we will continue to see slight gains in sales through the spring and into the summer, helped along by modest price reductions and new listings. Overall housing demand remains strong and builders are busy, but with the exception of the luxury market, many buyers are struggling with their financial issues of affordability and credit.

As Will Rogers once said, “Don’t wait to buy a house; buy a house and wait”.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 1%, med price unchanged, DOM  60 up 13%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, med price up 1%, DOM 60 up 12%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 11%, med price up 11%, DOM 64,
up 28%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 20%, med price down 6%, DOM 64, unchanged.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 7%, med price down 18%, DOM 81, unchanged..

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 20%, med price down 8%, DOM 94, up 24%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 15%, med price up 2%, DOM 59, up 26%.

YTD 19 vs 18:: Sales down 9%, med price down 7%, DOM 57, up 21%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 18%, med price up 42%, DOM 69, down 29%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 15%, med price up 28%, DOM 78, down 22%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 32%, med price down 15%, DOM 52, up 4%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 21%, med price down 14%, DOM 53, up 67%.
Northwest Dallas:
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 7%, med price down 5%, DOM 61, up 22%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 60, up 5%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 25, med price up 1%, DOM 51, down 4%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, med price unchanged, DOM 54, down 4%.
Plano:
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 10%, med price up 1%, DOM 56, up 33%.

YTD 19 vs 18:  Sales down 4%, med price up 2%, DOM 62, up 41%.
Frisco:
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 25%, med price up 16%, DOM 91, up 52%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 26%, med price up 7%, DOM 89, up 29%.
Richardson:

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 4%, med price up 7%, DOM 43, up 19%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 2%, med price up 8%, DOM 44, up 22%.
Southlake:

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 62%, med price down 13%, DOM 61, down 33%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 21%, med price up 7%, DOM 57, down 25%.
Coppell:

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 13%, med price down 4%, DOM 50, up 39%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 4%, med price up 2%, DOM 61, up 2%.
Allen:
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 16%, med price down 15%, DOM 75, up 44%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 4%, med price down 7%, DOM 71, up 58%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Feb 19 vs 18: Sales up 1%,  med price down 4%, DOM 70, up 15%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, med down 1%, DOM 67, up 14%.
Cedar Hill:
Feb 19 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 11%, DOM 44, up 22%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 41, up 5%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Feb 19 vs 18: Sales down 1%, med price down 3%, DOM 48, up 30%.

YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 2%, med price up 3%, DOM 52, up 27%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018:
$200-299K (35.5% of sales): unchanged, 4.9 months inventory
$300-399K (16.9% of sales): down 5%, 4.5 months inventory
$400-499K (7.8% of sales): down 3%, 6.2 months inventory
$500-599K (3.4% of sales): down 2%, 7.7 months inventory
$600-699K (1.8% of sales): down 8%, 9.1 months inventory
$700-799K (1.0% of sales): down 4%, 9.3 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): down 22%, 13.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 10%, 13.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.4% of sales): up 10%, 16.4 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018.
$200-299K (26.7% of sales): 195 units vs 211 units year ago, 3.9 months inventory
$300-399K (16.0% of sales): 117 units vs 139 units year ago, 9.1 months inventory
$400-499K (7.3 % of sales): 53 units vs 62 units year ago, 10.0 months inventory
$500-599K (3.3% of sales): 24 units vs 29 units year ago, 9.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): 9 units vs 11 units year ago, 16.2 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 4 units vs 8 units year ago, 14.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 3 units vs 3 units year ago, 6.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 2 units vs 0 units year ago, 17.0 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 8 units vs 11 units year ago, 22.8 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

Dallas area home sales are off to a lackluster start, picking up where they left off last year.  January sales were down 10% vs year ago, following a 9% year-over-year drop in December.  While it is historically the slowest time of the year, we can’t blame it all on seasonality. Interest rates have settled down, leveling off at 4.25% to 4.5%, so it’s not the fear of runaway mortgages. Employment is excellent, company earnings are doing very well, so it’s not lack of jobs. It is the market catching its breath, continuing to adjust the speedometer, after 5 years of unusually fast growth and price appreciation. What it tells me is that the ingredients are there for a pretty nice spring market, with buyers able to negotiate for a change.  For home buyers, this spring will offer more choices than we have had for several years. Inventory shortages, a long-time complaint of too few homes for sale, have rebounded nicely, with inventory up 24% so far this year. Affordability is still the key, so we’ll see if there is more give and take with pricing decisions.

Not all our submarkets experienced much lower sales activity in January. Coppell and Plano are looking good, and the M Streets and Far North Dallas are holding their own.  The $1M+ price point with single family homes saw sales increase 17% in January.  The $700’s were also higher (13%).  The other price points were down, some by 20+%.  All the condo and townhome price categories over $200K, including the $1M+ price point, were also in negative territory.  My hunch February data will not be much improved, but I think we can look forward to spring coming back to life.

As Will Rogers once said, “Don’t wait to buy a house; buy a house and wait”.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 4%, DOM  57 up 8%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 10%, med price up 2%, DOM 59 up 11%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 21%, med price down 6%, DOM 71
up 18%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 27%, med price down 22%, DOM 61, down 24%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 13%, DOM 74, down 33%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 44%, med price up 20%, DOM 134, up 100%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price up 6%, DOM 55, up 34%.

Jan 19 vs 18:: Sales up 1%, med price down 12%, DOM 55, up 17%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 30%, med price up 3%, DOM 91, down 8%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 7%, med price up 14%, DOM 92, up 12%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 33%, med price down 4%, DOM 57, down 2%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales unchanged, med price down 12%, DOM 55, up 28%.
Northwest Dallas:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 29%, med price up 3%, DOM 60, up 22%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 26%, med price up 2%, DOM 61, down 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 4%, DOM 39, down 3%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 35%, med price unchanged, DOM 60, up 2%.
Plano:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 1%, DOM 53, up 26%.

Jan 19 vs 18:  Sales up 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 68, up 48%.
Frisco:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 27%, med price down 5%, DOM 80, up 8%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 25%, med price unchanged, DOM 85, up 8%.
Richardson:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 53, up 89%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 45, down 32%.
Southlake:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 12%, DOM 82, up 14%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 15%, med price up 27%, DOM 48, down 23%.
Coppell:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 13%, med price down 9%, DOM 59, down 23%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales up 6%, med price up 20%, DOM 46, down 34%.
Allen:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price up 11%, DOM 77, up 15%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 21%, med price up 4%, DOM 61, up 74%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price down 4%, DOM 64, down 9%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 13%, med price up 2%, DOM 61, up 9%.
Cedar Hill:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 15%, DOM 35, unchanged.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales up 23%, med price down 7%, DOM 34, down 23%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 11%, med price unchanged, DOM 54, up 15%.

Jan 19 vs 18: Sales down 3%, med price up 6%, DOM 55, up 28%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018:
$200-299K (35.2% of sales): down 8%, 3.0 months inventory
$300-399K (16.2% of sales): down 6%, 5.3 months inventory
$400-499K (7.8% of sales): down 1%, 6.9 months inventory
$500-599K (2.9% of sales): down 14%, 9.6 months inventory
$600-699K (1.7% of sales): down 18%, 10.4 months inventory
$700-799K (1.1% of sales): up 13%, 9.1 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): down 21%, 13.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): down 2%, 6.4 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.3% of sales): up 17%, 17.9 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018.
$200-299K (26.5% of sales): 90 units vs 88 units year ago, 3.8 months inventory
$300-399K (15.0%nof sales): 51 units vs 54 units year ago, 10.3 months inventory
$400-499K (4.4% of sales): 15 units vs 23 units year ago, 12.5 months inventory
$500-599K (3.5% of sales): 12 units vs 17 units year ago, 9.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): 4 units vs 6 units year ago, 19.0 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 2 units vs 6 units year ago, 15.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 1 unit vs 0 units year ago, 11.0 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 1 unit vs 0 units year ago, 11.0 months inventory
$1MM + (0.9% of sales): 3 units vs 10 units year ago, 28.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

The year end numbers are in, and Dallas area average sales prices finished the year up 4.8% and median sales prices up 5.0%.  While we had our second best sales year in history, with over 104,000 homes sold in the 22 county area, the total was down 1% from 2017, the previous high.  Median sales prices were up in 14 of the 15 submarkets I track (below), with three markets, Cedar Hill, North Dallas, and Oak Cliff up double digits and one market, Coppell, down 1%.

December sales were off 9% compared to a year ago, following October and November’s patterns.  The market began slowing in July, after digesting 5+ years of record growth. Interest rates edged up slightly to the 4.25%-4.50% range, briefly touching 5% in November/December. However, the Fed just announced a hiatus for further rate increases, removing rates as a concern for the time being.

Market fundamentals are still very sound, nationally and for our area.  Job creation is still very positive and good corporate earnings reports are continuing to roll in.  The Urban Land Institute’s Emerging Trends report names DFW as the #1 real estate investment market for 2019, citing the highly skilled workforce and robust business startup activity. We still lead the nation in home building, according to Metrostudy, and we still lead the nation in apartment construction, with 35,000 units in the pipeline.

As Will Rogers once said, “Don’t wait to buy a house; buy a house and wait”.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 4%, DOM  57 up 8%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 46 up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 21%, med price down 6%, DOM 71
up 18%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price unchanged, DOM 55, up 15%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 13%, DOM 74, down 33%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 6%, DOM 68, down 7%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price up 6%, DOM 55, up 34%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 7%, DOM 39, up 8%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 30%, med price up 3%, DOM 91, down 8%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 11%, DOM 79, up 22%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 33%, med price down 4%, DOM 57, down 2%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 41, up 8%.
Northwest Dallas:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 29%, med price up 3%, DOM 60, up 22%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 41, up 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 4%, DOM 39, down 3%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 5%, DOM 39, up 5%.
Plano:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 1%, DOM 53, up 26%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 40, up 21%.
Frisco:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 27%, med price down 5%, DOM 80, up 8%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 3%, DOM 59, up 23%.
Richardson:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 53, up 89%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 7%, DOM 30, up 36%.
Southlake:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 12%, DOM 82, up 14%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 8%, DOM 56, up 4%.
Coppell:

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 13%, med price down 9%, DOM 59, down 23%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price down 1%, DOM 45, down 4%
Allen:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price up 11%, DOM 77, up 15%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 43, up 13%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Dec 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price down 4%, DOM 64, down 9%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 53, up 8%.
Cedar Hill:
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 15%, DOM 35, unchanged.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 30, down 9%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Dec 18 vs 17: Sales up 11%, med price unchanged, DOM 54, up 15%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 11%, DOM 43, up 5%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.9% of sales): up 8%, 2.0 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 6%, 2.8 months inventory
$400-499K (8.9% of sales): up 8%, 3.5 months inventory
$500-599K (4.0% of sales): up 4%, 4.0 months inventory
$600-699K (2.1% of sales): up 6%, 4.5 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 2%, 4.6 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): up 1%, 4.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): down 2%, 6.4 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 6%, 7.6 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.8% of sales): 1689 units vs 1673 units year ago, 2.4 months inventory
$300-399K (17.6% of sales): 1154 units vs 1068 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$400-499K (8.0% of sales): 520 units vs 515 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$500-599K (3.5% of sales): 229 units vs 172 units year ago, 5.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): 78 units vs 88 units year ago, 9.8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): 43 units vs 39 units year ago, 8.1 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 29 units vs 29 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 22 units vs 24 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 72 units vs 85 units year ago, 10.8 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

I hope your holiday season is in full gear surrounded by family and friends!  As I write this summary of fall home sales activity, we have entered a more balanced market, one that is no longer a hyper seller’s market.  This is due to natural market forces that kick in when affordability becomes uncomfortable. Factored into the affordability formula are mortgage interest rates, certainly household incomes, and consumer confidence, including job security.  The horses on the runaway stage are pausing for a drink.

It’s an interesting market. Sales are down 1% November year-to-date.  Not a bad year overall.  But different from the last 5 to 7 years of double-digit sales increases.  In all single family price categories over $200,000, sales are up vs year ago, albeit in single digits, with the exception of homes priced in the $900’s, which is off 1%. See below. Sales of condos and townhomes over $600,000 and slightly lower as well.  Sales of homes priced $200,000 and higher represent only half of the overall market, so the real softness is in the lower price points, dragging the 29-county North Texas numbers downward.  Not that there is no demand for the under $200’s!  There are just no homes to be found.  Investors, flippers and regular folks have bought them all-hence the lower year-to-year sales comparisons.

So, where do we go from here?  Well, the economy in Dallas, in Texas and nationally is on fire.  Job openings exceed the number of job hunters, creating the lowest (3.7%) unemployment rate in decades.  Company earnings are very healthy.  The consumer confidence index is near its highest level in years.

Interest rates are up, but have tapered off the last two weeks to 4.5% to 4.75%.  This is still below the long term average of 6-8%, and we will get used to it.  But tell that to someone who locked it to 3% a few years ago and just might decide to postpone downsizing for a while.

The Texas Real Estate Center at A&M produced a chart showing the impact of major tax change legislation on the economy’s performance.  After the Kennedy tax overhaul in 1964 and the Reagan tax overhaul in 1986, the national economy roared for the next 5 years before running out of steam.  If that holds, the Trump tax overhaul of 2017-2018 could result in a continuance of this years economic performance for another four years.  With the DFW metro population projected to grow from 7 million to 10 million people in the next 11 years, we are going to need to build and buy houses, condos, and apartments.  We’re in a good place.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 3%, DOM  53 up 10%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price up 4%, DOM 48 up 4%

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 45, up 6%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price down 1%, DOM 56.
up 14%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales down 27%, med price up 14%, DOM 51, up 21%

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 15%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 40%, med price up 39%, DOM 61, down 19%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales down 22%, med price up 13%, DOM 96, up 68%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 6%, DOM 67,down 4%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 31%, DOM 48, up 33%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales up 4%, med price up 15%, DOM 41, down 7%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 37 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price down 13%, DOM 94, up 22%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 40%, med price up 3%, DOM 61, down 5%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 14%, DOM 77, up 26%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 6%, DOM 57, up 50%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 7%, DOM 45, up 29%

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 5%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Northwest Dallas:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 38%, med price up 1%, DOM 54, up 35%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales up 31%, med price down 20%, DOM 39, up 3%.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 29%, med price down 1%, DOM 35, down 35%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 46, down 16%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 6%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Plano:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price down 1%, DOM 59, up 34%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 9%, DOM 43, plus 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, up 19%.
Frisco:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 7%, DOM 72, up 31%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 71, up 42%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 4%, DOM 58, up 26%.
Richardson:

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 34, up 26%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 9%, DOM 32, up 39%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 7%, DOM 27, up 29%.
Southlake:

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 10%, DOM 69, up 13%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales up 10%, med price up 5%, DOM 54, down 33%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 6%, DOM 55, up 2%.
Coppell:

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 63, down 15%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 20%, med price down 13%, DOM 59, unchanged.

YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price unchanged, DOM 43%, down 7%
Allen:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 63, up 21%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 18%, DOM 49, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 40, up 14%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 23%, med price up 3%, DOM 65, up 5%.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price down 6%, DOM 54, down 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 52, up 11%.
Cedar Hill:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 48%, med price up 5%, DOM 38, unchanged.

Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 18, down 45%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 9%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 13%, DOM 44, up 29%.

Oct 18 vs 17:  Sales up 5%, med price up 4%, DOM 34, down 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 12%, DOM 42, up 5%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.7% of sales): up 7%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.4% of sales): up 6%, 3.1 months inventory
$400-499K (8.9% of sales): up 8%, 3.9 months inventory
$500-599K (4.1% of sales): up 5%, 4.5 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 3%, 5.5 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 3%, 5.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): up 2%, 5.8 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): down 1%, 7.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 8%, 8.9 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.7% of sales): 1560 units vs 1529 units year ago, 2.6 months inventory
$300-399K (17.7% of sales): 1071 units vs 982 units year ago, 5.1 months inventory
$400-499K (8.0% of sales): 483 units vs 460 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$500-599K (3.4% of sales): 209 units vs 150 units year ago, 6.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.3% of sales): 75 units vs 82 units year ago, 10.1 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 38 units vs 37 units year ago, 9.8 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 25 units vs 28 units year ago, 6.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 19 units vs 22 units year ago, 8.7 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 64 units vs 71 units year ago, 15.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

It’s a good time to be a Buyer!  We might be entering a new phase in Dallas home sales, as September sales slipped 7% vs year ago, the steepest year-over-year slide in 7 years.  For the first nine months, we are even with last year’s sales.  We have had 80+ months of steady sales growth, in many cases double-digit sales growth, much of which was stimulated by ultra-low mortgage interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has made it clear that the robust economy we are presently enjoying will continue with the Fed’s eye on inflation.  That means a few preemptive hikes in the federal funds rate to keep inflationary tendencies contained.  The rate hikes thus far have caused mortgage rates to rise, with the 30-year conforming loan reaching 5%.  (Jumbo loans and ARM’s are still available at this date in the mid to upper 4’s).

September’s sales’ slide followed a 1% decline in August and a similar decline in June.  Other factors blamed include higher inventory (remember, we were wishing for this condition just a few months ago), higher prices/less affordability, and the new tax law that comes into play in January.

However, Dallas median sales prices continue to increase, although at single digit rates.  Prices were up 4% in September vs year ago and up 5% year-to-date.

Now, here is the good news.  Most of the weighing down in sales is occurring in the Under $200,000 price point, which accounts for almost half of all Dallas area sales.  There is almost nothing in the Under $200’s to buy–investors and residents have it all now.  Sales there are down 20-25%.  But sales over $200,000 are higher than year ago in all but the $800’s. Homes priced over $1M were up 10% in September.  So, we have somewhat higher sales, but also longer selling times.

The bottom line is the market is shifting away from the 7-year seller’s market frenzy and into a more normal buy-sell market, with comfortable inventory, longer DOM, price reductions, and real negotiation.  Check out the details below…

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 4%, DOM  44 up 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 5%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 39%, med price up 3%, DOM 44 down 2%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price unchanged, DOM 54, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 14%, med price down 9%, DOM 100, up 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 4%, DOM 66, down 7%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price down 5%, DOM 39, up 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 4%, DOM 37 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 33%, DOM 70, up 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 15%, DOM 76, up 27%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 46, up 28%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 38, up 3%.
Northwest Dallas:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 28%, med price up 23%, DOM 48, up 37%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, up 5%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 28%, med price up 12%, DOM 46, up 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 7%, DOM 39, up 18%.
Plano:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 2%, DOM 45, up 32%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 16%.
Frisco:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 20%, med price up 9%, DOM 62, up 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 4%, DOM 55, up 25%.
Richardson:

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 7%, DOM 27, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 24%.
Southlake:

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 22%, med price up 34%, DOM 80, up 70%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 53, up 6%.
Coppell:

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price down 5%, DOM 47, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 41, down 2%
Allen:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 33%, med price up 9%, DOM 36 down 12%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 2%, DOM 35 up 6%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price down 6%, DOM 55, up 12%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 4%, DOM 51, up 13%.
Cedar Hill:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price up 18%, DOM 27, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 11%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 9%, DOM 31, up 21%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 12%, DOM 42, up 2%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.6% of sales): up 10%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 8%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.0% of sales): up 11%, 4.1 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 6%, 4.7 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 7%, 5.7 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 3%, 6.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): down 2%, 6.5 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 6%, 8.4 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 10%, 9.4 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.8% of sales): 1314 units vs 1302 units year ago, 2.7 months inventory
$300-399K (17.8% of sales): 908 units vs 818 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$400-499K (7.8% of sales): 399 units vs 380 units year ago, 5.9 months inventory
$500-599K (3.5% of sales): 178 units vs 119 units year ago, 6.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.3% of sales): 68 units vs 76 units year ago, 9.1 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 30 units vs 34 units year ago, 11.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 22 units vs 21 units year ago, 9.0 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 16 units vs 19 units year ago, 9.6 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 54 units vs 59 units year ago, 14.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

Dallas home sales in August slipped 1% vs year-ago sales reflecting a continuation of insufficient inventory and rising home prices.  If you recall, June sales were also lower than year-ago.  July’s better-than-year-ago sales was a nice bump but not able to sustain the momentum.  We also saw an 8% increase in the days on market in August.  Through eight months this year, 11 of the 16 submarkets I track are still ahead of last year’s sales pace, but all in the single digit range.  Park Cities’ big August (+29%) brought this market into positive sales territory (+4%) for the year.

Scrolling down, if you look at sales of single family homes by price point, you will see that sales in price points at or above $200,000 are stronger than the Dallas area average, up in all cases but in the $800’s. We live in a large metro with approximately 28% of housing priced below $200,000 and weighing down the average.

On inventory, the good news is that builders started more homes in the second quarter than any period in the last 12 years, up 13%. For the 12 months ending in the second quarter, Dallas started 36,264 homes. And none too soon, as pent-up demand remains strong.  Dallas remains one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country, at more than a 4% rate in the first four months of 2018, translating to 35,000 new jobs.  With pending sales down 2% in August, we need a continued rise in the number of homes listed for sale to provide more choices for buyers now in the market.

Now a side note for homeowners who wish to rent out their homes on a short-term basis (AirBnB for example):  The Texas Supreme Court unanimously sided with a San Antonio homeowner who was renting his house to others, stating that homeowners should be able to use their homes as they see fit without government intrusion.  This ruling will force homeowner associations across the state to reverse clauses in their CCR’s calling that usage a violation of deed restrictions.

On rates, as of this date, you can get a jumbo mortgage to buy or refinance up to $1.5 million, 5% down, no PMI with 6-9 months reserves and with a 700 or better credit score.  Rates are around 4 5/8%.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 4%, DOM  42 up 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price up 3%, DOM 66, up 94%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 29%, med price up 3%, DOM 65, down 27%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 5%, DOM 62, down 11%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 34, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 36 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 30%, DOM 88, up 38%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 13%, DOM 77, up 31%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 31%, med price up 12%, DOM 20, down 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 37, down 5%.
Northwest Dallas:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 8%, DOM 34, down 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, up 3%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 12%, DOM 50, up 61%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 39, up 22%.
Plano:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 3, DOM 36, up 33%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 35, up 17%.
Frisco:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 6%, DOM 53, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 54, up 23%.
Richardson:

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 28, up 27%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 30%.
Southlake:

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 1%, DOM 46, up 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 50, down 2%.
Coppell:

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 21%, med price up 10%, DOM 34, down 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 37, down 12%
Allen:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price unchanged, DOM 34, up 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 1%, DOM 35 up 9%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 12%, DOM 49, up 14%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 4%, DOM 50, up 14%.
Cedar Hill:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 20, down 31%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 10%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 21%, DOM 41, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 15%, DOM 44, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.5% of sales): up 11%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 9%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.1% of sales): up 13%, 4.0 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 8%, 4.8 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 5%, 5.6 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): uo 4%, 6.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): down 2%, 6.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 7%, 8.1 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 9%, 9.1 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.3% of sales): 1175 units vs 1147 units year ago, 2.6 months inventory
$300-399K (17.9% of sales): 830 units vs 728 units year ago, 4.5 months inventory
$400-499K (8.0% of sales): 371 units vs 343 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$500-599K (3.6 of sales): 165 units vs 108 units year ago, 6.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 66 units vs 70 units year ago, 8.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 27 units vs 26 units year ago, 9.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 22 units vs 20 units year ago, 8.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 15 units vs 18 units year ago, 8.0 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 49 units vs 52 units year ago, 13.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

This report comes right on the heels of the June report, as I couldn’t wait to see if the Dallas area sales rebounded from it’s first year-over-year decline in years.  Overall June sales were off 3% from year-ago, but July sales did indeed rebound, up 6% vs last July.  Happy to see this!  As I postulated last month, the economic conditions locally and nationally are in great shape and should continue to support the expansion of home building and home resales, especially here.  The dip may have been the result of end-of-June business rolling into July.

The results, as always are not uniform through the area.  Cedar Hill sales were up 45%, Coppell up 35%, Park Cities and Far North Dallas up 25% and 23% respectively.  On the other hand, Lake Highlands’ sales were down 16%, Uptown sales were down 12%, and Frisco’s down 11%.

Meanwhile, overall median sales prices were up 6%, pretty consistent with recent months this year.  The Lakewood/M Streets area saw the median sales price climb 20%, Cedar Hill 14% and Richardson 12%.

Changing the subject a little…we have had some good and welcome rain this weekend, bringing some relief to the overly dry soil in our yards.  Still, be diligent about protecting your foundation by maintaining a constant moisture level around the home’s perimeter.  If you don’t have a sprinkler system, invest in a soaker hose.  And this super dry, then super wet action plays havoc with the shrinkage and expansion of the clay.  No need to worry–this is not atypical for this time of year.  Just be aware!

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 38, up 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 6%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price unchanged, DOM 42, down 25%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 1%, DOM 53, up 6%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 23%, med price up 9%, DOM 54, down 29%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 5%, DOM 62, down 7%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 20%, DOM 37, up 9%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 37, up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 5%, DOM 77, up 51%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 8%, DOM 76, up 31%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 23%, med price up 5%, DOM 29, up 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 2%, DOM 36, down 5%.
Northwest Dallas:
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price down 5%, DOM 33, down 18%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 38, up 3%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 6%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Plano:
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 2%, DOM 33, up 38%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 35, up 13%.
Frisco:
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 6%, DOM 46, up 21%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 23%.
Richardson:

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 19%, DOM 25, up 39%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 9%, DOM 26, up 30%.
Southlake:

Jul 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 16%, DOM 53, up 66%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 6%, DOM 51, down 2%.
Coppell:

Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 35%, med price up 12%, DOM 28, down 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 4%, DOM 36, down 18%
Allen:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 28, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price down 1%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 48, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 2%, DOM 36, down 16%.
Cedar Hill:
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 45%, med price up 14%, DOM 30, up 50%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 12%, DOM 32, down 3%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Jul 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price down 4%, DOM 40, down 9%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 12%, DOM 44, up 2%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.4% of sales): up 12%, 2.0 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 10%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.1% of sales): up 14%, 4.2 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 9%, 5.0 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 4%, 5.9 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): unchanged, 6.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): up 1%, 6.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 15%, 8.8 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 6%, 9.7 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.5% of sales): 1026 units vs 997 units year ago, 2.3 months inventory
$300-399K (17.8% of sales): 718 units vs 614 units year ago, 4.3 months inventory
$400-499K (8.2% of sales): 331 units vs 304 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$500-599K (3.0% of sales): 154 units vs 92 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 55 units vs 63 units year ago, 8.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 22 units vs 25 units year ago, 9.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 17 units vs 17 units year ago, 9.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 14 units vs 18 units year ago, 5.0 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 45 units vs 47 units year ago, 12.6 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

The economy is solidly advancing.  The GDP will exceed 3% this year for the first time in 13 years.  The unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 50 years.  And wages are up 2.8% over the last 12 months.  But, Dallas home sales fell 3% in June from year-ago levels, the first decline in year-over-year sales in at least four years.

So, what’s behind the mismatch?  June sales are May contracts, which is still the “Spring Market”.  You can’t outsmart the free market, and the market says it’s time for a breather.  We could probably boil it down to two words:  declining affordability.  I don’t believe it’s interest rates; they are steady in the mid 4%’s, still an historical bargain.  And inventory is building (finally).

Prices are still moving upward, with the median sales price in June up 7%.  Demand is still strong.  But some folks are being squeezed out of the market, taking an edge off the sales numbers.  Note the double-digit sales declines in several markets (below) with median prices holding their own, indicative of healthy demand in the face of struggling sales numbers.  I am anxious to see the July numbers, and will report back to you as always!

 

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 7%, DOM 38, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 45, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price down 14%, DOM 41, down 16%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 55, up 12%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 64, up 28%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 5%, DOM 64, down 3%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 11%, DOM 31, unchanged.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 3%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price unchanged, DOM 53, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 9%, DOM 75, up 27%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price down 7%, DOM 33, up 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, down 5%.
Northwest Dallas:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 23%, med price up 14%, DOM 38, up 9%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, up 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price down 1%, DOM 35, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 6%, DOM 37, up 16%.
Plano:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 6%, DOM 30, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Frisco:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price up 2%, DOM 46, up 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 56, up 24%.
Richardson:

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 19%, DOM 25, up 39%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 30%.
Southlake:

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 7%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 5%, DOM 51, down 9%.
Coppell:

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 17%, med price up 5%, DOM 26, down 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 4%, DOM 36, down 18%
Allen:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 28, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price down 1%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 48, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 50, up 11%.
Cedar Hill:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 23, down 30%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 33, down 8%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 7%, med price up 18%, DOM 37, down 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 16%, DOM 45, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.0% of sales): up 12%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.6% of sales): up 10%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.0% of sales): up 12%, 4.4 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 7%, 5.2 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 6%, 6.1 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): down 2%, 7.0 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): down 1%, 7.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 8%, 9.9 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 4%, 10.4 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.6% of sales): 865 units vs 832 units year ago, 2.3 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): 625 units vs 530 units year ago, 4.0 months inventory
$400-499K (8.3% of sales): 279 units vs 261 units year ago, 5.0 months inventory
$500-599K (3.6% of sales): 123 units vs 92 units year ago, 6.5 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): 45 units vs 90 units year ago, 7.7 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 19 units vs 21 units year ago, 8.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 12 units year ago, 12.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 16 units year ago, 2.8 months inventory
$1MM + (1.4% of sales): 43 units vs 44 units year ago, 11.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

U.S. home sales are down 2% for the first five months of this year… but the Dallas area continues to outperform, with year-to-date sales up 4% over last years figures.  In May, sales were up 9% over year ago.  In fact, in May there were 11,303 homes sold in the area, the largest number ever in a single month for North Texas.  Median home prices were also at a new, record level, up 5% in May to $266,500 (the national average is $264,800).  Just three years ago, the median sales price was $190,000, per the Metrotex Assn of Realtors.

Our home sales activity continues to be healthy.  Demand is strong but home building is not keeping up.  Nationally, home starts are at their  highest level since 2007 but still below the level that prevailed in the 1970s, when the U.S population was much lower.  So, it seems to point towards continued upward pressure on prices.

The caveats?  Borrowing costs are rising. The tax plan capping state and local tax deductions is reducing incentives to buy.  Labor and material costs (especially lumber)  are rising.  City rules, fees and regulations are creating longer lead times and costs for builders.  But, we seem to be surviving okay.  It helps that, despite seven years of accelerated price growth here, we are still a moderately priced market to many who are moving from high cost states.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
May 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 5%, DOM 39, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 5%, DOM 47, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

May 18 vs 17: Sales up 13%, med price up 6%, DOM 42, down 31%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 12%, med price up 6%, DOM 57, up 16%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
May 18 vs 17: Sales up 12%, med price up 12%, DOM 71, down 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 5%, DOM 64, down 9%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 1%, DOM 29, down 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, unchanged
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 64, up 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 9%, DOM 80, up 29%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
May 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 6%, DOM 26, down 32%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 4%, DOM 39, down 9%.
Northwest Dallas:
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price down 12%, DOM 31, down 9%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, up 5%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
May 18 vs 17: Sales up 15%, med price up 9%, DOM 28, down 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 8%, DOM 37, up 19%.
Plano:
May 18 vs 17: Sales up 13%, med price up 3%, DOM 25, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 2%, DOM 37, up 9%.
Frisco:
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 45, down 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 2%, DOM 58, up 26%.
Richardson:

May 18 vs 17: Sales up 14%, med price up 13%, DOM 19, up 27%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 5%, DOM 27, up 29%.
Southlake:

May 18 vs 17: Sales up 21%, med price up 1%, DOM 26, down 46%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 51, down 18%.
Coppell:

May 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 5%, DOM 24, down 33%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 5%, DOM 39, down 19%
Allen:
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price unchanged, DOM 31, up 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 38, up 12%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

May 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 49, up 29%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 51, up 9%.
Cedar Hill:
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 10%, DOM 23, down 18%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 37, unchanged.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
May 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 9%, DOM 42, up 2%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 10%, med price up 19%, DOM 46, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.1% of sales): up 16%, 1.8 months inventory
$300-399K (18.1% of sales): up 13%, 3.1 months inventory
$400-499K (8.8% of sales): up 16%, 4.3 months inventory
$500-599K (4.0% of sales): up 7%, 5.4 months inventory
$600-699K (2.1% of sales): up 6%, 6.6 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 2%, 7.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): down 2%, 8.1 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 11%, 11.0 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.6% of sales): up 3%, 11.3 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (26.0% of sales): 708 units vs 661 units year ago, 1.8 months inventory
$300-399K (18.3% of sales): 498 units vs 440 units year ago, 3.8 months inventory
$400-499K (8.4% of sales): 228 units vs 215 units year ago, 4.7 months inventory
$500-599K (3.5% of sales): 94 units vs 62 units year ago, 6.5 months inventory
$600-699K (1.5% of sales): 40 units vs 39 units year ago, 6.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): 19 units vs 5 units year ago, 9.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 11 units vs 8 units year ago, 13.2 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 9 units vs 13 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$1MM + (1.2% of sales): 33 units vs 31 units year ago, 14.1 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

Dallas home sales rebounded in April, with an 11% increase over last year, besting the 4% increase in March and the 10% increase in February.  Sales in the first four months of the year are 4% ahead,  Pending sales in April were up 11%, pointing to a good May report coming soon.  As I reported last month, area-wide median sales prices are not rising as fast, up 4% in April, but certain submarkets are still reporting double-digit price increases (see below).

Interest rates are higher, now around 4 5/8% versus 4% at the beginning of the year.  For those of us that remember the days of double-digit mortgage rates, this is still great territory.  However, those who secured rates in the low 3% range in 2016-2017 and earlier, trading for another home and giving up the lower rate can be a tough decision–one reason why the remodeling boom is rocking along.

The number of homes listed for sale is up 8% but still below normal.  Demand for homes is still strong, bolstered by Texas’ fastest growing economy in the nation in 2017.  This demand, coupled with continued short supply, will continue to put upward pressure on home prices.  Until this formula reverses, or affordability hits the ceiling (salaries not keeping up or interest rates spiking), the pattern of increasing sales amid higher median prices will continue.  As the Texas economy continues to shine, DFW will continue to benefit.

Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track.  DOM stands for “Days on Market”…

Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 11%, med price up 4%, DOM 43, up 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 5%, DOM 49, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 23%, med price up 23%, DOM 61, up 53%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 14%, med price up 14%, DOM 63, up 40%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 19%, med price up 16%, DOM 42, down 21%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 20%, med price up 3%, DOM 60, down 12%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 5%, DOM 31, unchanged..
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 5%, DOM 38, up 3%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 2%, DOM 75, up 29%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 9%, DOM 86, up 34%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 47, up 12%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 44, down 2%.
Northwest Dallas:
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price down 1%, DOM 27, down 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 10%, DOM 42, up 11%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 7%, DOM 25, down 11%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 8%, DOM 41, up 32%.
Plano:
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 35, up 25%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 1%, DOM 41, up 8%.
Frisco:
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 3%, DOM 59, up 55%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 63, up 40%.
Richardson:

Apr 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 24, up 26%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 3%, DOM 29, up 26%.
Southlake:

Apr 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price down 5%, DOM 43, down 22%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 6%, DOM 60, down 13%.
Coppell:

Apr 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price down 4%, DOM 39, down 26%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 7%, DOM 49, down 8%
Allen:
Mar 18 vs 17: Sales up 12%, med price down 1%, DOM 43, down 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 4%, DOM 46, down 13%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):

Apr 18 vs 17: Sales up 10%, med price up 7%, DOM 44, up 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 4%, DOM 52, up 4%.
Cedar Hill:
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 9%, DOM 35, up 59%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 12%, DOM 40, up 5%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Apr 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price up 9%, DOM 62, up 51%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 21%, DOM 47, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.0% of sales): up 16%, 1.6 months inventory
$300-399K (17.8% of sales): up 13%, 3.0 months inventory
$400-499K (8.4% of sales): up 16%, 4.4 months inventory
$500-599K (3.8% of sales): up 9%, 5.8 months inventory
$600-699K (2.0% of sales): up 10%, 6.7 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 7%, 7.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): up 5%, 7.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): down 2%, 11.7 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.5% of sales): unchanged, 12.8 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (26.6% of sales): 655 units vs 470 units year ago, 1.8 months inventory
$300-399K (17.4% of sales): 357 units vs 322 units year ago, 4.0 months inventory
$400-499K (8.8% of sales): 181 units vs 147 units year ago, 4.6 months inventory
$500-599K (3.3% of sales): 67 units vs 46 units year ago, 7.8 months inventory
$600-699K (1.6% of sales): 32 units vs 30 units year ago, 6.3 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 11 units vs 9 units year ago, 11.3 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 10 units vs 5 units year ago, 10.0 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 5 units vs 11 units year ago, 10.4 months inventory
$1MM + (1.2% of sales): 25 units vs 21 units year ago, 14.1 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540