BOB EDMONSON
REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL

Texas is one of only four states that has exceeded its pre-pandemic level of employment, the others being Arizona, Utah and Idaho.  If there were just one metric you would want on your side to measure economic health, it would be this: strong employment aka Jobs.  Yes, our nation entered a recession just a few weeks ago, and that’s a fact.  But is Texas in one, or for that matter, Dallas?  Per the Dallas Fed, the “Texas economy continued expanding in June and July, though at a decelerating pace compared with earlier this year.  There are increasing signs of slowing activity, particularly weakening demand in manufacturing, even as overall job growth remains strong”.  The Fed further points out that Texas employment growth accelerated to an annualized rate of 7.3% in June,  9.7% in the second quarter, and that the state’s expansion was broad based during the second quarter.  We are fortunate to live in Texas, which has outpaced the nation in all sectors (construction, trade, manufacturing, professional business services, financial and information activities, leisure and hospitality and especially energy) with the exception of government.  Real estate-wise, North Texas leads the nation in warehouse and distribution space construction (70+million square feet) and office starts (3.8 million square feet) in 2022.  The Fed’s Texas employment forecast projects a 4.5% growth this year, a bit less than last year, but still double the state’s historic average of 2%.

So, back to the question.  Are we in a recession here?  Well, technically yes.  And we know there are plenty of North Texans struggling.  In our industry, we see fewer multiple purchase offers and less bidding over asking prices.  And for the first time in a long time, we see the days-on-market beginning to inch upward in a few of our submarkets.  Interest rates, prices and uncertainty are getting in the way. Demand for homes is still healthy (remember “jobs”) but off our peak levels, and this includes rental homes, up 21% year to date.  Our trend line is still moving upward, demand will continue to outstrip supply while builders continue to build and apartments continue to emerge.  Sellers are adjusting to the market and buyers are taking more time with decision-making.  I believe we are moving into a more stable and healthier market.  We are in a good place.

Check out the new “area” definitions in the list below:

Overall Single Family Market (North Texas):

Jun 22 vs 21: Sales down 8%, median price up 20%, DOM 18, unchanged.

Jul 22 vs 21: Sales down 14%, median price up 15%, DOM 20, up 18%.

YTD 22 vs 21:  Sales down 5%, median price up 20%, DOM 22, down 12%

Overall Condos Market (North Texas):

Jun 22 vs 21: Sales down 33%, median price up 18%, DOM 23, down 50%

Jul 22 vs 21: Sales down 22%, median price up 2%, DOM 19, down 57%

YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 14%, median price up 13%, DOM 32, down 41%

Overall Townhome Market (North Texas):

Jun 22 vs 21: Sales down 10%, median price up 20%, DOM 26, down 21%

Jul 22 vs 21:  Sales down 24%, median price up 17%, DOM 26, down 24%

YTD 22 vs 21:  Sales down 12%, median price up 19%, DOM 30, down 25%

Single Family Home Sales Trends:

Jul 2020: 12,006 houses, $138/sf avg, 98% sold to asking

Jul 2021: 9593 houses, $171/sf avg, 103% sold to asking

Jul 2022: 8214houses, $205/sf avg, 101% sold to asking

Condo Sales Trends:

Jul 2020: 400 homes, $181/sf avg, 95% sold to asking

Jul 2021: 444 homes, $208/sf avg, 98% sold to asking

Jul 2022: 343 homes, $244/sf avg, 103% sold to asking

Townhomes Sales Trends: 

Jul 2020: 337 homes sold, $154/sf avg, 96% sold to asking

Jul 2021: 353 homes sold, $186/sf avg, 101% sold to asking

Jul 2022: 268 homes sold, $220/sf avg. 101% sold to asking

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by selected Cities for July YTD 2022 vs 2021:

Dallas: Sales 717 vs 923, Median Price $246/sf vs $216/sf, Sold vs Asking 100%

Richardson: Sales 96 vs 114, Median Price $233/sf vs $186/sf, Sold vs Asking 102%

Plano:  Sales 239 vs 347, Median Price $217/sf vs $184/sf, Sold to Asking 102%

Frisco:  Sales 229 vs 326, Median Price $244/sf vs $193/sf, Sold to Asking 101%

Highland Park: Sales 12 vs 15, Median Price $635/sf vs $542/sf, Sold to Asking 101% (June data)

University Park: Sales 11 vs 37, Median Price $561/sf vs $462/sf, Sold to Asking 101%

Southlake: Sales 50 vs 58, Median Price $341/sf vs $293/sf, Sold to Asking 106%

Colleyville: Sales 43 vs 52, Median Price $247/sf vs $216/sf, Sold to Asking 99%

Coppell: Sales 36 vs 62, Median Price $261/sf vs $202/sf, Sold to Asking 103%

Carrollton: Sales 94 vs 131, Median Price $219/sf vs $186/sf, Sold to Asking 102%

Farmers Branch: Sales 24 vs 29, Median Price $241/sf vs $196/sf, Sold to Asking 102%

Allen: Sales 134 vs 156, Median Price $221/sf vs $187/sf, Sold to Asking 102%

If you would like information for another city, call, email or text me!

Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540