Summer is blazing hot, and so has been the Dallas real estate activity thus far. We sold a record number of single family homes in June, 10,857 homes in the 22 county area, and we came close to matching that effort in July. The median sales price of homes sold is up 7% through the first seven months of the year.
If you look solely at the percentage change vs year ago, you might think otherwise. For the first time in almost two years, greater Dallas sales in July were down 2% from year ago. In fact, the percent change in sales has been on a steady decline all year: Dec +21%, Jan +20%, Feb +22%, Mar +18%, Apr +15%, May +10%, Jun +7% and now July -2%. The housing market is not in a freefall–we’re still selling lots of homes while unable to keep up with an accelerating pace. It’s tough to keep setting year-over-year records each month, when we can’t build enough homes to keep up with the demand. And affordability is a factor as well, with the continued increase in prices preventing some, particularly first-time homebuyers, from entering the market. Sales were still up double-digits in the $200K to $700K price range, but they represent only 55% of the market. Sales below $200K are very slow, as the inventory is so low, and sales above $900K are slow, due to growing price sensitivity. This 45% of the market has put a real dent in the percentage change in sales from 2015.
Economists at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center (which produces our sales statistics) say DFW is in “the early years of a bull market for single family housing that could last a decade”. As long as we maintain a positive business environment in our state, which will continue to create new jobs from existing businesses, attract corporate relocations and new jobs, this prediction will likely ring true.
Here is a look at home sales by submarket that I track. DOM is “Days on Market”. For details on Las Colinas and Kessler Park, call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 2%, med price up 9%, DOM 36, down 5%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 7%, med price up 8%, DOM 37, down 8%
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 9%, DOM 43, down 8%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales up 10%, med price down 2%, DOM 34, down 13%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 10%, med price up 12%, DOM 36, up 3%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 36, down 8%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 19%, med price up 24%, DOM 63, up 29%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 16%, DOM 56 up 19%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 60, up 15%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 17%, med price down 3%, DOM 28, down 15%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 4%, med price down 6%, DOM 33, up 36%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 1%, med price up 1%, DOM 35, up 3%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 30%, med price down 5%, DOM 70, up 19%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 19%, med price down 11%, DOM 54, up 17%
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 11%, med price up 4%, DOM 53, down 5%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 28%, med price up 7%, DOM 24, down 14%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 29, up 26%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 12%, med price up 12%, DOM 33, unchanged.
Northwest Dallas:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 8%, med price up 8%, DOM 34, up 48%.
Jun 16 v 15: Sales up 13%, med price up 16%, DOM 32, up 52%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 13%, DOM 35, unchanged.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales unchanged, med price up 13%, DOM 33, up 6%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 16%, DOM 31, up 11%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 11%, DOM 37, up 6%.
Plano:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price up 7%, DOM 25, up 25%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 10%, DOM 27, up 50%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 6%, DOM 29, up 7%.
Frisco:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 31, up 11%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, down 7%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 3%, med price up 7%, DOM 37, up 12%.
Richardson:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 13%, DOM 18, down 14%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 19%, DOM 18, up 6%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 5%, med price up 13%, DOM 22, down 15%.
Southlake:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 17%, med price up 5%, DOM 59, up 34%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 18%, DOM 68, up 58%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 8%, med price up 7%, DOM 61, up 9%.
Coppell:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 4%, med price up 9%, DOM 30, down 12%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 30%, med price up 21%, DOM 33, up 32%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 12%, med price up 13%, DOM 41, down 2%.
Allen:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 8%, DOM 23, down 28%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 29, down 9%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 6%, DOM 31, down 21%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 38, down 12%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales down 13%, med price up 10%, DOM 44, unchanged.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 3%, med price up 7%, DOM 45, down 10%.
Cedar Hill:
Jul 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 22%, DOM 42, down 11%.
Jun 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 4%, DOM 24, down 49%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 14%, med price up 14%, DOM 40, down 22%.
For Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015:
$200-299K (27.5% of sales): up 17%, 1.7 months inventory
$300-399K (14.6% of sales): up 22%, 2.8 months inventory
$400-499K (7.2% of sales): up 23%, 4.1 months inventory
$500-599K (3.3% of sales): up 20%, 5.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.7% of sales): up 11%, 6.8 months inventory
$700-799K (1.0% of sales): up 13%, 7.9 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): up 6%, 7.5 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): down 2%, 10.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.3% of sales): down 1%, 13.0 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015.
$200-299K (24.0% of sales): 904 units vs 815 units year ago, 1.9 months inventory
$300-399K (13.0% of sales): 490 units vs 402 units year ago, 3.2 months inventory
$400-499K (5.9% of sales): 221 units vs 192 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$500-599K (2.7% of sales): 100 units vs 77 units year ago, 4.8 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 54 units vs 41 units year ago, 5.7 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 20 units vs 26 units year ago, 11.9 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 15 unit vs 20 units year ago, 11.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.0% of sales): 1 units vs 9 units year ago, 105 months inventory
$1MM + (0.8% of sales): 31 units vs 44 units year ago, 19.2 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540