The year 2008 finished with home sales down 14% and average sales price down 3%. We have seen better years, but this is a far cry from a calamity. To the new readers of this blog, I have addressed the city comparisons in previous postings, and many of us have seen these figures in the papers or on the news in studies prepared by Case-Shiller or PMI. Dallas fared pretty well, better than any other big city market. We sold 80,000 homes and condos in 2008, and we had a 5.7 months inventory at the end of the year. The people that conduct the research tell us that 6 months is equilibrium, so we’re reasonably healthy there. Demand is down, but so are listings. Buyers and Sellers are both keeping the market in check, although not intentionally!
The spring market in Dallas always begins late in January, with sales steadily increasing until peaking in June. The interest in home ownership has not dampened, and Open House traffic is once again building, now that the holidays are behind us. But we have problems, namely in the financing arena, and you are too well aware of this. The mega-banks have been burned badly by loose lending practices over the past four years, and they are particularly skittish about making loans at this particular time (mid January). The capital infusions coming from the TARP Act are not turning into new loans, as had been intended. Instead, these billions are camping out on the mega-banks’ balance sheets, as a potential rainy day fund for possible new surprises these banks might encounter. Until the psychology improves, lending and lending requirements will be pretty tight. Loans will still be made but with lots of scrutiny.
There are lots of choices when it comes to choosing a lender, and one place to turn is to the smaller, more regional banks. Mortgage loans were not as much a commodity to them, and in most cases, they made fewer bad decisions (loans) and paid perhaps better attention to their underwriting process. While still cautious, many of these regional banks are happy to make loans. Generally, buyers with great credit, savings and a job are able to get mortgages as in the past, just with a little more paperwork. Your favorite mortgage broker can help with this. I have a great group of lenders I can recommend as well.
Now for a little cheer: a look at the market-by-market summary below reveals that 10 of the 14 markets I track actually saw average sales prices INCREASE over 2007, by as much as 8%. Of the other four markets, one (Park Cities) saw no change, and the others were down 2% or less. This is very encouraging, and I hope this trend will carry into the Spring. We all do!
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 3%, DOM 83, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 3%, DOM 81, up 9%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 21%, DOM 132, up 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 8%, DOM 115, up 16%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 6%, DOM 85, up 6%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 93, up 39%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price down 5%, DOM 90, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 77, up 20%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 17%, DOM 125, up 58%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price up 5%, DOM 102, up 44%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 4%, avg price up 23%, DOM 85, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price up 2%, DOM 75, up 34%.
Northwest Dallas:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 46%, avg price down 2%, DOM 72, down 5%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price up 5%, DOM 76, up 25%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 10%, avg price unchanged, DOM 98, up 66%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 2%, DOM 61, up 20%.
Plano:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 6%, DOM 79, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 1%, DOM 68, up 24%.
Frisco:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price down 14%, DOM 81, down 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price up 1%, DOM 89, up 16%.
Richardson:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price unchanged, DOM 72, down 11%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 2%, DOM 63, up 13%.
Southlake:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 16%, avg price down 13%, DOM 100, up 30%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 3%, DOM 78, up 10%.
Coppell:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 5%, DOM 47, down 18%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 7%, DOM 54, up 13%.
Allen:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 47%, avg price down 6%, DOM 87, down 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 4%, DOM 82, up 19%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price up 9%, DOM 119, up 40%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 3%, DOM 91, up 6%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 14%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 18%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): down 17%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 18%, 12 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 17%, 13 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 18%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 27%, 16 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 20%, 16 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 11%, 19 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.0% of sales): 733 units vs 850 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.5% of sales): 324 units vs 444 units year ago, 15 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 122 units vs 147 units year ago, 19 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 85 units vs 82 units year ago, 18 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 35 units vs 38 units year ago, 24 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 21 units year ago, 68 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 15 units vs 11 units year ago, 47 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 10 units vs 13 year ago, 19 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 25 units vs 38 year ago, 60 months
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Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate