Overall sales for our region were down 19% in September, a seemingly high figure. But, since September is a historically low volume month, our year-to-date unit sales total held steady at minus 6%. Nothing to brag about, of course, unless we are comparing our sales activity to that of most major metros in the country. You have read about this in the papers, and I have touched on this before. We are fortunate to be living in one of the fastest growing cities in the country, and we expect to continue to need homes for all those moving in. This link from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas sheds a lot of light on the local economy: http://dallasfed.org/data/hotstats/econ/2007/econ0710.cfm. Our over abundance of new homes in the suburbs is a short term imbalance between absorption and supply, but the free market system will take care of that as it always does. In the meantime, home sellers benefited from double-digit increases in average sales price in most of the submarkets. The Park Cities area realized a 47% gain in average sales price. Thinking this may have been the result of a few mega sales, I checked the median sales price change, which was up a very healthy 25%. Uptown, East Dallas and North Dallas all had at least a 20% increase in average sales price over year ago September. While I don’t have the numbers to prove it, my hunch points to sales of new custom home construction being behind this large increase. These are the new, larger and pricy homes on lots formerly occupied by older homes with little or no improvement value (all lot value). The builder paid “a little” for the property last year and the new buyer “a lot” for the property this year. Further evidence is in Richardson, where there is very little if any “tear down” activity. There, average sales price was down 2% in September.
For the first three quarters, our average sales price is up in all but one of the submarkets tracked in this report. This is not a sign of trouble in the real estate market. And to help put some facts forward about the foreclosure stories you are hearing about, the National Mortgage Bankers Association offered these tidbits: The biggest foreclosure problem is in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, predominately manufacturing states. Michigan has lost 300,000+ jobs since 2001. Most of the rest of the foreclosure problem is in CA, FL, AZ and NV, where there has been significant overbuilding and speculation. 35% of homes in the U.S. do not have mortgages. 98% of mortgages are performing. Only 9% of mortgages are subprime and 75% of these are performing. Our local (Metroplex) inventory levels are half the national average. More to come next month…
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 19%, avg price up 8%, DOM 74, up 4%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 5%, DOM 72, up 5%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 11%, avg price up 22%, DOM 85, up 9%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 4%, avg price up 10%, DOM 97, up 21%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 24%, avg price up 47%, DOM 68, up 45%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 11%, DOM 66, up 8%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 25%, avg price up 20%, DOM 70, up 1%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 8%, DOM 63, unchanged.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 29%, avg price up 32%, DOM 67, up 16%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 23%, DOM 68, up 8%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 2%, avg price unchanged, DOM 49, down 6%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price down 1%, DOM 54, down 8%.
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 2%, avg price up 7%, DOM 80, up 19%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 4%, avg price up 5%, DOM 60, down 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 29%, avg price up 13%, DOM 56, down 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 1%, avg price up 10%, DOM 51, unchanged.
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 4%, DOM 57, up 12%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 4%, DOM 51, up 4%.
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price unchanged, DOM 57, up 12%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down unchanged, avg price up 5%, DOM 72, up 16%.
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales down 30%, avg price down 2%, DOM 60, up 18%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price up 3%, DOM 53, down 2%.
Sep 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 16%, DOM 85, down 8%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 7%, DOM 72, up 24%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:
$200-299K (16.3% of sales): down 4%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): up 3%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): up 7%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 11%, 11 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 12%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 27%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 6%, 14 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): up 8%, 17 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 19%, 16 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006.
$200-299K (14.8% of sales): 657 units vs 488 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.8% of sales): 340 units vs 276 units year ago, 11 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 119 units vs 129 units year ago, 18 months
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): 65 units vs 58 units year ago, 21 months
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): 29 units vs 26 units year ago, 25 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 13 units vs 17 units year ago, 36 months
$800-899K (0.1% of sales): 5 units vs 5 units year ago, 95 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 11 units vs 5 year ago, 24 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 19 units vs 16 year ago, 65 months
Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates