For the first half of 2008, sales were down 15% from the first half last year, city-wide. In the markets I track in this report, sales were down anywhere from 9% in Frisco to 35% in Northwest Dallas and in the Uptown-Oak Lawn area. We saw 7363 homes sell in June, on par with sales volume in 2003. Prices are doing well enough, when compared to other cities, down 2% overall but with several instances of positive gains: Uptown up 13% vs year ago, Park Cities area up 1%, North Dallas up 3%, Far North Dallas up 2%, Northwest Dallas up 9% and Frisco up 2%. It’s nice to say, “up”, for a change, given the constant hammering we hear and see in the news. Have you noticed that a lot of the front page articles regarding housing in the local paper are from “wire services”? Real Estate is local, just as is the weather. Keep that in mind when you are tuned into network newscasts or your favorite source of news.
PMI, a mortgage insurance company, conducts periodic research on housing prices around the country, and in their last report, in June I believe, they put Dallas on top of the list of most stable home markets in the country. Our market is not bad, it’s just slow. IndyMac, the bank that recently failed in California, was a big player in the subprime loan business in that state. While I haven’t seen the breakdown, I would bet that 80% of the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac you have heard about stem from bad loan practices in the four states of CA, AZ, NV, and FL. Still, we are not isolated from national problems, of course, so if interest rates on conforming 30-year mortgages climb as a result of problems elsewhere, our buyers here in Dallas will pay those same higher mortgage rates. Thusfar, this is not a problem, and hopefully, it won’t be.
Where we have been stung a little bit is in the jumbo loan market, over $417,000. Those loans are carrying higher than historical interest rates, because those loans are more difficult to sell in the secondary markets. This directly impacts the higher priced homes, which is why we see longer marketing times for these properties. A good rule of thumb for a healthy Dallas market is said to be 6 months of inventory. This exists at every price point under $170,000, but as you can see below, it begins to climb from 8 months inventory for homes in the $200’s to 23 months inventory for homes in the $800’s. This doesn’t mean it will take you 23 months to sell an $850,000 home, it just speaks to supply. If your home is just what that buyer is looking for, your “days on market” can be even just a few days.
Dallas continues to be an attractive market for business and relocations, as reinforced by the recent announcement from AT&T. We almost landed the MillerCoors headquarters, and there may be others in the wings. We are happy to be in Dallas, with reason to remain positive heading into the second half of the year.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price down 1%, DOM 77, up 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 2%, DOM 83, up 13%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 3%, DOM 95, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 13%, DOM 108, up 8%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price up 1%, DOM 83, up 20%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 1%, DOM 92, up 37%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 4%, DOM 63, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 2%, DOM 77, up 24%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 15%, DOM 72, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 3%, DOM 91, up 30%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 6%, DOM 63, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price up 2%, DOM 72, up 26%.
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 2%, DOM 50, up 4%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 9%, DOM 77, up 24%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 7%, DOM 47, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price unchanged, DOM 58, up 9%.
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price down 3%, DOM 58, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 31%.
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 5%, DOM 80, up 16%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 2%, DOM 93, up 31%.
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 37%, avg price down 4%, DOM 66, up 32%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price down 5%, DOM 67, up 24%.
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 1%, avg price down 7%, DOM 63, up 31%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price unchanged, DOM 65, down 10%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.3% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): down 12%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): down 15%, 11 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 12%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 18%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 23%, 17 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 30%, 23 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): down 14%, 20 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 17%, 22 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.8% of sales): 405 units vs 439 units year ago, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (6.8% of sales): 155 units vs 215 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 57 units vs 84 units year ago, 26 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 46 units vs 44 units year ago, 20 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 18 units vs 22 units year ago, 34 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 7 units vs 8 units year ago, 36 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 3 units year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 7 units vs 5 year ago, 25 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 10 units vs 12 year ago, 59 months
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate