Sure enough, we have a three-peat. The Spring ’15 market is evoking a sense of deja-vu, with demand for homes, condos, townhouses and rentals outstripping supply. Last year and in 2013, we had a challenging market, a new phenomenon for us accustomed to lots of inventory and typical days on market in the 180 range. With this comes higher home prices, and Dallas, along with Denver and Miami, led the nation in price increases early in this year, up 8% compared to a year ago, according to CoreLogic. In fact, Dallas prices are 13% higher than pre-recession levels–but our residential costs are still slightly below the nationwide median. You might remember that Dallas was the least affected city from a home sales standpoint following the financial meltdown in September 2008.
It’s all about job growth. Companies relocating here are bringing 4000 jobs (Toyota), 1200 jobs (Liberty Mutual Insurance) and 1500 jobs (State Farm Insurance). The economy in general is creating jobs across all industries. North Texas is growing by 100,000 people each year. Builders are struggling to keep up, as housing starts still haven’t returned to the level seen before the recession. Demand for apartments is higher here than anywhere else in the country. Over 18,000 apartments were leased in the last 12 months, and there are over 34,000 apartments under construction. Of course we know this–it seems like it is everywhere, with lane closures and heavy equipment slowing down our daily commutes.
With more competition for the existing for-sale inventory, buyers are required to be a little quicker with decisions and oftentimes required to reach deeper into their pockets. Multiple offers are back, as well as over asking price bidding–not on every home or in every submarket, but it’s not uncommon. Despite the higher prices, there is no “bubble”, as bubbles require a good supply of homes for sale. Can’t have a crash if there are no houses to sit on the market!
And then there is the lingering expectation of an interest rate increase, perhaps by the end of the year. An increase of 1 point to a 5% interest rate will result in an approximate 12% increase in the monthly mortgage payment. This, of course, has been rumored for the past 4 years. We’ll see.
It’s kind of crazy out there, but we can handle it! You might have to write a couple of offers, but you will prevail. Hang in there!
Below are the stats for the individual sub-markets I track. I am happy to delve into this with you in more detail. Call me at my Allie Beth Allman office if you have any questions!
Overall Market (North Texas):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales unchanged, med price up 9%, DOM 57, down 11%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 1%, med price up 10%, DOM 58, down 9%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 8%, med price down 1%, DOM 52, down 37%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 6%, med price down 11%, DOM 57, down 27%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 17%, med price down 15%, DOM 62, down 15%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 20%, med price down 13%, DOM 64, down 17%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 7%, med price up 17%, DOM 40, down 13%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 10%, med price up 14%, DOM 43, down 10%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 8%, med price up 33%, DOM 67, up 16%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 24%, med price up 22%, DOM 62, down 26%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 1%, med price up 10%, DOM 40, down 15%
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 11%, med price up 10% DOM 44, down 12%.
Northwest Dallas:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 2%, med price up 19%, DOM 52, down 10%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 52, down 9%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 7%, med price up 6%, DOM 45, down 4%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales unchanged, med price up 10%, DOM 45, down 12%.
Plano:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales unchanged, med price up 9%, DOM 37, down 20%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 1%, med price up 7%, DOM 40, down 11%.
Frisco:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 38, down 22%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 11%, med price up 7%, DOM 40, down 18%.
Richardson:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 9%, med price up 13%, DOM 35, down 29%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 1%, med price up 11%, DOM 36, down 22%.
Southlake:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 3%, med price up 11%, DOM 77, up 8%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 13%, med price down 4%, DOM 83, up 8%.
Coppell:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 23%, med price up 24%, DOM 75, up 34%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 21%, med price up 8%, DOM 76, up 77%.
Allen:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales down 7%, med price up 27%, DOM 56, up 37%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 1%, med price up 19%, DOM 53, up 20%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 4%, med price up 4%, DOM 58, down 5%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 9%, med price up 6%, DOM 59, down 6%.
Cedar Hill:
Feb 15 vs 14: Sales up 8%, med price up 9%, DOM 72, unchanged.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 8%, med price up 26%, DOM 60, down 3%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2015 vs 2014:
$200-299K (23.2% of sales): up 11%, 2.4 months inventory
$300-399K (10.5% of sales): up 18%, 4.1 months inventory
$400-499K (5.4% of sales): up 32%, 5.2 months inventory
$500-599K (2.2% of sales): up 11%, 8.0 months inventory
$600-699K (1.5% of sales): up 21%, 7.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.8% of sales): up 38%, 9.6 months inventory
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): up 46%, 9.1 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 35%, 8.7 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 2%, 17.2 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2015 vs 2014.
$200-299K (19.9% of sales): 144 units vs 137 units year ago, 2.8 months inventory
$300-399K (11.0% of sales): 80 units vs 51 units year ago, 3.6 months inventory
$400-499K (4.6% of sales): 33 units vs 39 units year ago, 5.0 months inventory
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 14 units vs 12 units year ago, 7.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.1% of sales): 8 units vs 2 unit year ago, 7.8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 3 unit vs 5 units year ago, 13.3 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 3 units vs 1 unit year ago, 10.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 1 unit vs 0 units year ago, 22 months inventory
$1MM + (1.2% of sales): 9 units vs 8 units year ago, 16.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540