In my last report, I mused that we might see a “snappier” home sales performance in September. Well, we did. September surprised us with a 9% gain in overall Dallas sales and a 6% increase in median sales price. This brought the third quarter totals to plus 2% for sales and plus 2% median sales price. Upon further inspection however, we see that 56% of the homes sold in September were priced between $200K and $300K, and this segment registered a healthy 8% increase in sales. This weights the results of the overall numbers significantly. The $500 to $1M Plus segment accounted for just 11% of total Dallas area home sales, and the pace of sales was noticeably slower.
Most mortgage lenders agree that this burst in home sales was attributed to first-time home buyers who took advantage of the dip in interest rates in August to purchase. Many sales in higher price points were not consummated, thanks to refinancing. Conventional mortgage rates dropped to 3.5% briefly in July/August and stand today at 3.875% or so. (Still quite a bargain).
The big take-away though is in the higher end sales, $1M and up. Here, there was no change in sales vs year ago. Realtors selling in the $200K to $300K range were very busy, and Realtors in the high end were not busy at all. So, when we talk about overall sales numbers for specific geographies, it’s a good idea to know how your house is valued or where you are contemplating buying for an accurate snapshot of sales activity.
A good example is Park Cities. On the charts below, you can see that September sales were up 18%. However, looking at sales by price point, you can see that sales of homes price at $1M and up were flat/0% change in September vs year ago. The sales surge was coming from lower priced homes, especially the $900’s, and probably in the surrounding neighborhoods of Greenway Parks, Greenway Crest, Devonshire, Briarwood, and Bluffview, labeled as “Park Cities”.
Now that the last of our 115 days of 90+ temperatures ended Oct 10th (we hope), the classic Dallas fall should usher in more activity in the higher price points.
Here are the details: DOM stands for “days on market”.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 9%, median price up 6%, DOM 45 up 16%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 2%, median price up 2%, DOM 51 up 16%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 40%, median price up 11%, DOM 62,
up 44%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 9%, median price down 3%, DOM 62, up 15%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 18%, median price down 8%, DOM 89, down 10%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, median price up 7%, DOM 75, up 15%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 17%, median price up 10%, DOM 50, up 28%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales unchanged, median price down 2%, DOM 48, up 30%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, median price down 7%, DOM 80, up 14%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, median price down 10%, DOM 69, down 10%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 39%, median price up 5%, DOM 51, up 11%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 2%, median price unchanged, DOM 48, up 26%.
Northwest Dallas:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 51%, median price unchanged, DOM 42, down 16%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 1%, median price up 1%, DOM 50, up 28%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 30%, median price down 3%, DOM 51, up 11%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 5%, median price unchanged, DOM 48, up 23%.
Plano:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales down 9%, median unchanged, DOM 50, up 11%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 6%, median price unchanged, DOM 45, up 25%.
Frisco:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 24%, median price down 3%, DOM 59, down 6%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 1%, median price up 2%, DOM 62, up 13%.
Richardson:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 28%, median price up 7%, DOM 45, up 67%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 7%, median price up 3%, DOM 37, up 37%.
Southlake:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, median price down 18%, DOM 79, up 1%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales down 5%, median price up 1%, DOM 53, unchanged.
Coppell:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 2%, median price up 3%, DOM 42, down 33%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 3%, median price down 3%, DOM 38, down 10%.
Allen:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 49%, median price down 9%, DOM 54, up 46%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 15%, median price up 5%, DOM 52, up 49%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 35%, median price up 1%, DOM 61, up 9%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 4%, median up 2%, DOM 61, up 20%.
Cedar Hill:
Sep 19 vs 17: Sales up 38%, median price unchanged, DOM 29, up 16%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 1%, median price up 6%, DOM 38, up 27%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales up 17%, median price down 5%, DOM 43, up 43%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 11%, median price up 3%, DOM 48, up 12%.
Carrollton/Farmers Branch:
Sep 19 vs 18: Sales down 14%, median price down 3%, DOM 35, up 3%.
YTD 19 vs 18: Sales up 11%, median price up 3%, DOM 38, up 36%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018:
$200-299K (35.5% of sales): up 7%, 2.1 months inventory
$300-399K (19.7% of sales): up 8%, 3.2 months inventory
$400-499K (9.2% of sales): up 4%, 4.0 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 4%, 4.3 months inventory
$600-699K (2.3% of sales): up 5%, 5.5 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 2%, 5.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): up 4%, 6.8 months inventory
$900-999K (0.5% of sales): up 18%, 7.8 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): unchanged, 9.9 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2019 vs 2018.
$200-299K (28.1% of sales): 1346 units vs 1327 units year ago, 3.6 months inventory
$300-399K (19.2% of sales): 917 units vs 917 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$400-499K (7.4% of sales): 352 units vs 400 units year ago, 7.8 months inventory
$500-599K (3.6% of sales): 171 units vs 182 units year ago, 6.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.6% of sales): 78 units vs 68 units year ago, 6.6 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 21 units vs 71 units year ago, 14.6 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 14 units vs 23 units year ago, 10.3 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 17 units vs 15 units year ago, 11.1 months inventory
$1MM + (0.9% of sales): 42 units vs 56 units year ago, 21.6 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540