November was a gang-buster month all over town, with significant sales increases in all submarkets. Overall, sales in the Dallas area were up 31%, and the median sales price was also up 5%. This was the second month in a row where home sales were up versus the year ago month. These nice percentage gains can be attributed in a large part to a truly awful November in 2008. Remember (how can we forget) the scary autumn we had after several large financial instutions failed in September, 2008. With most sales contracts having a 30-60 day closing schedule, many buyers slammed on the brakes in September, delaying home purchases and decimating November, 2008 sales figures. This year, we also had the first-time buyer’s home credit which had a November 30 expiration date. This credit was extended and widened to reach additional buyers, but not until a few weeks ago, leading buyers on a rush to complete their home purchases by the end of November, 2009. With 401(k)’s rebounding, there was more confidence injected into the house-buying activity as well.
Going forward, we still have record low mortgage interest rates in our favor and an improving economy. I think we’ll establish a new pattern of beating the previous year’s sales with an upward pointing trend line. We may have hiccups along the way, but after this year, home sales can only get better. The interest rates, still hovering at 5% or slightly below, will not stick around forever, though. We already know the Fed is contemplating moving off the 0% discount rate as soon as it feels better about the economic recovery. The federal government’s massive borrowing is crowding out many sources of financing while keeping rates artificially low. When the Fed begins to relax the controls over rates, we will long for the days of 5% mortgage money. Perhaps the best indicator of when rates may begin their upward march will be the unemployment rate. Keep an eye on this number. If it begins dropping below 10% and continues inching down for three months or so, we’ll likely see a change in strategy among those controlling our money supply.
Back to the numbers below…keep in mind that these large percentage gains result from lower unit sales numbers. While sales more than doubled in the Lake Highlands area, that represents 43 homes sold vs 21 a year ago. In the Park Cities area, the 81% sales increase represents 56 sales vs 31 sales last November, or 25 additional homes sold. On median sales prices, Richardson and Coppell had nice increases, but most markets I track were all over the place. I think we know that prices are still relatively soft out there, and that sellers have had to ratchet down their asking prices this year to land the buyers. While Dallas overall saw a 5% increase in median sales prices, homes priced over $200,000 still represent only 26% of the Dallas market. Fully 74% of Dallas home sales are at price points below $200,000. First time home buyers and investors are probably paying more for these homes than they did a year ago.
December numbers will be out in three weeks, so we’ll soon have a full record of this year 2009. A year many of us won’t miss!
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 31%, med price up 5%, DOM 77, down 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down unchanged, DOM 80, down 1%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 40%, med price down 17%, DOM 103, down 16%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 15%, DOM 105, down 8%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 81%, med price down 8%, DOM 158, up 39%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 13%, DOM 116, up 23%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 51%, med price down 13%, DOM 68, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 11%, DOM 74, down 3%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 48%, med price down 46%, DOM 138, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 10%, DOM 114, up 12%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 6%, med price unchanged, DOM 66, down 18%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 69, down 7%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 34%, med price down 1%, DOM 72, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price up 1%, DOM 81, up 7%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 105%, med price down 21%, DOM 80, up 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 1%, DOM 68, up 15%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 55%, med price unchanged, DOM 53, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 5%, DOM 62, down 9%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 43%, med price down 9%, DOM 76, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 2%, DOM 78, down 12%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 41%, med price up 7%, DOM 42, down 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 53, down 16%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 60%, med price down 14%, DOM 113 down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 203%, med price down 7%, DOM 101, up 31%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 70%, med price up 9%, DOM 47, up 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 6%, DOM 50, down 7%.
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 18%, med price down 3%, DOM 59, down 30%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 2%, DOM 74, down 10%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 43%, med price unchanged, DOM 99, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 3%, DOM 92, up 3%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 10%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.3% of sales): down 15%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 20%, 11 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 14%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 27%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 34%, 18 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 23%, 21 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 27%, 24 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 40%, 30 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (15.1% of sales): 533 units vs 705 units year ago, 13 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): 205 units vs 297 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.0% of sales): 70 units vs 117 units year ago, 29 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 30 units vs 81 units year ago, 49 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 15 units vs 33 units year ago, 49 months
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 9 units year ago, 46 months
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 18 units vs 14 units year ago, 23 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 6 units vs 9 year ago, 59 months
$1MM + (0.7% of sales): 24 units vs 23 year ago, 54 months
Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homefinder Website
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
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