The April numbers are in, and several of the markets had a strong showing, recovering handsomely from a lackluster first quarter. In fact, the only truly soft markets (of those I track), where sales are down and prices are flat, are Plano and Richardson. Most of the Dallas market areas are performing well–Uptown sales up 21% and average sales price up 8%; Park Cities sales up 15% and average sales price up 12%; Southlake sales up 15% and average sales price up 9%; and Northwest Dallas sales up 16% and average sales price up 3%. The slowdown in Dallas sales activity surfaced about this time last year, so we are comparing sales to the dip that began last March/April. Perhaps we are pulling out of the slight slump of ’06, which would be good news. Still, there are plenty of areas around the Metroplex I do not track, and some of these are continuing to report slow sales. The overall Dallas market was off 6% in April, 5% for the four months year-to-date. As mentioned in last month’s letter, these markets are concentrated at price points less than $200,000, for the most part, and tend to be on the frontier, where most new subdivison development and construction is focused.
Traditional mortgage financing is still very much available and easy to obtain, IF you have good-to-great credit. There does not appear to be a continuing tightening or crunch beyond the steps taken by the lending community last month to tighten the screws on looser, creative lending practices. If those adjustments have been made, new borrowers will still have a good number of loan products from which to choose. Long term rates are actually a half-point lower than this time last year. Where there is still trouble is with borrowers stretching hard to make higher payments resulting from recent increases in their adjustable mortgage loans. Many of these borrowers bought new homes in newly developing suburbs, where there is a lot of new construction still unsold. For these homeowners, selling into that environment, where new buyers have new homes to choose from, makes it difficult to get cleanly out from under their mortgage obligations. And, with the typical slow to moderate rate of appreciation, if any in these areas, the choices become few: either scrape to make those new, higher payments, or turn in the keys. So, we will probably still read about higher than usual foreclosure activity in the months ahead.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 10%, DOM 69, unchanged.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price up 5%, DOM 76, up 4%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 58%, avg price up 21%, DOM 91, up 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 21%, avg price up 8%, DOM 108, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 61%, avg price up 8%, DOM 62, down 13%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 15%, avg price up 12%, DOM 64, up 2%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 5%, avg price up 6%, DOM 54, down 18%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 6%, DOM 67, down 1%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 16%, DOM 57, down 15%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 19%, DOM 73, up 11%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 22%, avg price down 11%, DOM 42, down 35%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 9%, avg price down 2%, DOM 58, down 21%.
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 22%, avg price up unchanged, DOM 55, down 26%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 16%, avg price up 3%, DOM 68, down 7%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 7%, avg price up 8%, DOM 54, down 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 6%, DOM 57, down 8%.
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 2%, DOM 47, up 7%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 1%, DOM 56, up 2%.
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 11%, avg price up 3%, DOM 68, up 5%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 5%, DOM 74, up 12%.
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 15%, avg price up 5%, DOM 44, down 30%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 1%, DOM 59, down 8%.
Apr 07 vs 06: Sales up 46%, avg price up 11%, DOM 75, up 34%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 15%, avg price up 9%, DOM 92, up 51%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:
$200-299K (17.1% of sales): up 1%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.8% of sales): up 6%, 10 months inventory
$400-499K (3.2% of sales): up 10%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 1%, 16 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 28%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 42%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 17%, 19 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 18%, 17 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.4% of sales): up 34%, 17 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006. Some builders do not report their sales in MLS–this list represents MLS reported sales only (as does this entire report).
$200-299K (16.6% of sales): 261 units vs 157 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.6% of sales): 132 units vs 118 units year ago, 12 months
$400-499K (2.1% of sales): 51 units vs 51 units year ago, 17 months
$500-599K (2.1% of sales): 24 units vs 16 units year ago, 19 months
$600-699K (1.1% of sales): 15 units vs 7 units year ago, 16 months
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 7 units vs 9 units year ago, 27 months
$800-899K (0.0% of sales): 2 units vs 2 year ago, 54 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 4 unit vs 3 year ago, 12 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 7 unit vs 6 year ago, 56 months
Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
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