Preowned home sales in Dallas continue to impress, with overall Dallas sales in September up 10% over last September and up 15% year-to-date vs year ago. Median sales prices were up 10% last month and up 7% year-to-date. The housing sector of our national economy appears to be the best performer, and why not? Interest rates are ridiculously low, and rental prices are near all-time highs. Anyone that has been around as long as I have knows this will not last, but no one knows when the worm will turn. We do know the Federal Reserve has publicly announced a continuation of its low-interest policy through 2014, but not all economic and geo-political factors are within its control. What’s occurring in Dallas is occurring in markets across the country. Here in Dallas, we are in our 15th consecutive month of increases in sales volume.
As I have pointed out in my previous postings this year, we have been working in a real estate environment marked by unusually low levels of inventory. Buyers are ready and able, but the days of having dozens of homes to select from are behind us, at least temporarily. This has been true all year. We had a much busier than usual January, and the buyer interest has not faded. Sellers are starting to get the point, and while a lot of sellers are thinking they might wait until the first of the year to put their homes on the market, to avoid disruptions over the holidays, they might give it a second thought and get on the market now. We have only 4.5 months of inventory, unusually low, and the “Days On Market” dropped as low as 43 days in September in Lake Highlands, 45 days in Richardson and 46 days in Coppell.
Housing starts jumped 34% in the third quarter, starting 5100 homes in the greater Dallas area. I mentioned a few months ago that we should expect big recovery in this area, as Dallas’ in-migration is forecast to be large and steady for the next 20 years. We need more housing, and the builders who survived the crunch are on top of it.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 10%, med price up 10%, DOM 69, down 22%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 15%, med price up 7%, DOM 74, down 16%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 4%, med price up 50%, DOM 75, down 25%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 9%, med price up 8%, DOM 98, down 20%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 49%, med price down 4%, DOM 92, down 31%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 24%, med price down 1%, DOM 77, down 23%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 45%, med price up 1%, DOM 76, down 7%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 25%, med price up 5%, DOM 78, down 16%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 21%, med price down 5%, DOM 105, up 5%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 25%, med price down 6%, DOM 94, down 15%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 50%, med price up 22%, DOM 64, down 18%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 31%, med price up 4%, DOM 65, down 23%.
Northwest Dallas:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 48%, med price up 43%, DOM 72, down 1%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 30%, med price up 13%, DOM 74, down 15%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 50%, med price up 24%, DOM 43, down 26%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 29%, med price up 10%, DOM 55, down 26%.
Plano:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 6%, DOM 53, down 30%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 4%, DOM 57, down 25%.
Frisco:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 22%, med price down 6%, DOM 48, down 33%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 58, down 24%.
Richardson:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 45, down 39%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 18%, med price up 2%, DOM 57, down 22%.
Southlake:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales unchanged, med price down 3%, DOM 91, down 1%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 30%, med price up 1%, DOM 71, down 17%.
Coppell
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 38%, med price up 14%, DOM 46, down 54%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 55, down 21%.
Allen:
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 25%, med price up 15%, DOM 50, down 29%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 13%, med price up 2%, DOM 58, down 19%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Sep 12 vs 11: Sales up 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 85, down 19%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 4%, DOM 83, down 17%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011:
$200-299K (18.7% of sales): up 26%, 4 months inventory
$300-399K (8.1% of sales): up 30%, 5 months inventory
$400-499K (3.6% of sales): up 26%, 6 months inventory
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): up 22%, 7 months inventory
$600-699K (1.1% of sales): up 15%, 9 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 25%, 11 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 26%, 11 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 10%, 12 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 24%, 14 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011.
$200-299K (16.8% of sales): 541 units vs 393 units year ago, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.2% of sales): 200 units vs 175 units year ago, 8 months
$400-499K (3.3% of sales): 107 units vs 64 units year ago, 7 months
$500-599K (1.6% of sales): 50 units vs 34 units year ago, 10 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 17 units year ago, 17 months
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 15 units vs 15 units year ago, 10 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 11 units vs 6 units year ago, 11 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 units vs 5 units year ago, 50 months
$1MM + (0.7% of sales): 21 units vs 26 units year ago, 29 months
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540