For the first time in what seems like ages, homes sales in September in the greater Dallas were ahead of year ago levels. This 2% increase was a welcome change to the double-digit negative numbers we have seen all year. I am not ready to predict a reversal in the trend, but I have stated previously that our slide began around a year ago (Aug/Sep 07) following the first warning sign for the current financial earthquake, when Countrywide Mortgage was found to be in trouble. So, year-over-year comparisons for the coming months may begin to show positive numbers now. We are still off 12% year to date and will almost surely end the year with fewer sales than in 2007.
As is usually the case, the wealth is not spread evenly among the submarkets. Condo and townhome sales in the Uptown-Oak Lawn-Downtown area are still quite soft, down 14% in September from year ago levels. But, the very good news is the higher sales levels in the Park Cities, East Dallas, North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Northeast Dallas, Richardson, and Plano for September. Only Far North Dallas, Frisco and Southlake, of the areas I track, were down from year ago sales levels of single family homes. We also have a mix of higher and lower average sales prices, but no one area is down more than 4% for the year to date (Richardson). And, Northwest Dallas is enjoying average sales prices for the first nine months up a lofty 7% versus the first nine months of 2007.
It is now frequently reported in the press that Dallas is among the top 2-3 markets nationwide with resilient home prices, benefiting from the strong, diverse local economy and relocations to our area. The state economy helps, too, and it doesn’t hurt that we have a several-billion dollar surplus (slightly dented by Hurricane Ike). With a number of other states reeling from the financial meltdown (almost all with high state income taxes, by the way), we may see more relocations to our area–not just individual families, but companies as well. Still, as Governor Perry stated recently, we in Texas are not isolated by any means from the impact of national credit problems, and a softening world economy could dampen demand for our exports (Texas leads the nation in this category).
Despite the newscasts, the lenders I work with are still lending. Money for home purchases is available. Buyers just have to document they are capable of paying back the loan.
The best description I heard of the current financial meltdown was, “this, too, shall pass…like a kidney stone”.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 2%, avg price unchanged, DOM 79, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 2%, DOM 81, up 11%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 50%, DOM 131, up 58%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 16%, DOM 110, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 36%, avg price down 12%, DOM 88, up 29%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 3%, DOM 93, up 41%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 5%, avg price down 3%, DOM 79, up 14%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 76, up 23%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 19%, avg price up 6%, DOM 98, up 36%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 5%, DOM 97, up 43%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price down 11%, DOM 54, up 6%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price down 2%, DOM 71, up 31%.
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 9%, avg price up 19%, DOM 70, down 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 7%, DOM 75, up 27%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 27%, avg price up 19%, DOM 70, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 1%, DOM 58, up 14%.
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 9%, avg price up 2%, DOM 65, up 12%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 31%.
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price up 7%, DOM 91, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 89, up 24%.
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 26%, avg price up 2%, DOM 62, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 4%, DOM 64, up 21%.
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 6%, DOM 82, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price up 3%, DOM 72, unchanged.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.2% of sales): down 13%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): down 14%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 16%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 13%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 15%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 24%, 18 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 15%, 18 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 9%, 20 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.4% of sales): 613 units vs 712 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): 243 units vs 342 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 95 units vs 120 units year ago, 20 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 67 units vs 66 units year ago, 19 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 27 units vs 29 units year ago, 29 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 14 units year ago, 56 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 5 units year ago, 36 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 11 year ago, 27 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 19 units vs 20 year ago, 46 months
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate