October sales reflected a continuation in the pattern with which we are very familiar: sales down and prices up. The Dallas market as a whole is off 7% through October compared to the same period in 2006. Overall average sales prices are up 3%. The last few months have seen a steeper drop in monthly sales versus the previous months, with the first double-digit decline occurring in June. Hopefully, we will pull out of this slump early in 2008. Another pattern that has not changed is at what price points this sales slump is occurring. The softness continues to be concentrated in the under-$300K price range and in those submarkets where there is a lot of property in this price range–the outer ring of suburbs. It is no coincidence that this is where a lot of mid-market builders are located and where new construction has slowed.
Yet we do have three markets I track with positive sales for the year: Northwest Dallas (the “Disney” streets), Northeast Dallas (Lake Highlands) and Uptown-Downtown-Oak Lawn. And in all the markets I track, average sales price is up or even with year-ago figures. This is key, and an excellent measure of the health of our real estate market. Homes in the Northeast and Northwest Dallas areas, both south of LBJ Freeway and either side of the “Golden Corridor” of North Dallas, are being discovered by buyers trying to get closer to the city center and looking for more affordability. Uptown and Oak Lawn are seeing a lot of new construction, mostly townhomes and condos and a desire to be closer to all the restaurant and entertainment venues.
The average sales price increases in some of these areas appear to be off the charts, especially in Park Cities, North Dallas and Uptown. This is due to sales of new and very pricey custom home sales on lots formerly occupied by the previous generation of homes (1950’s-1960’s). Sales of these newer homes will definitely skew the numbers from year-ago levels. In Uptown, the figures are top-loaded with sales in the new, expensive condo towers. So, if you live in one of these areas, don’t automatically apply that average sales price number to your home!!
Dallas is looking good overall, compared to much of the rest of the nation. More and more news articles are bringing this fact to the surface. The mortgage business is still alive, and good-credit buyers will still get the loans they want, but now with a little more paperwork. Mortgage interest rates are almost exactly where they were a year ago, so it is still an opportune time for buyers to take advantage of these soft conditions.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price up 3%, DOM 75, up 7%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 4%, DOM 73, up 5%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 19%, avg price up 53%, DOM 101, down 1%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 3%, avg price up 12%, DOM 97, up 18%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 26%, avg price up 38%, DOM 70, up 43%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 13%, DOM 66, up 10%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 5%, DOM 63, down 3%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price up 8%, DOM 63, down 2%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price up 30%, DOM 74, up 3%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 8%, avg price up 23%, DOM 69, up 8%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 26%, avg price down 11%, DOM 63, down 5%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 4%, avg price unchanged, DOM 55, down 7%.
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 7%, DOM 58, up 12%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 3%, avg price up 5%, DOM 59, down 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales up 37%, avg price up 14%, DOM 49, up 26%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 4%, avg price up 10%, DOM 50, down 2%.
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 8%, avg price up 5%, DOM 61, up 5%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 4%, DOM 52, up 4%.
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 17%, avg price down 7%, DOM 78, up 24%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 1%, avg price up 4%, DOM 73, up 18%.
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales up 9%, avg price up 6%, DOM 65, up 7%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 4%, avg price up 3%, DOM 55, up 2%.
Oct 07 vs 06: Sales down 30%, avg price up 11%, DOM 71, down 15%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 1%, avg price up 8%, DOM 72, up 22%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:
$200-299K (15.3% of sales): down 5%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.3% of sales): up 2%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): up 5%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.2% of sales): up 11%, 11 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): up 9%, 12 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 23%, 12 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): up 5%, 14 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 8%, 16 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.9% of sales): up 16%, 17 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006.
$200-299K (14.7% of sales): 715 units vs 532 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.7% of sales): 374 units vs 297 units year ago, 13 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 131 units vs 146 units year ago, 16 months
$500-599K (1.5% of sales): 73 units vs 63 units year ago, 22 months
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): 33 units vs 25 units year ago, 26 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 15 units vs 17 units year ago, 32 months
$800-899K (0.1% of sales): 6 units vs 5 units year ago, 88 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 11 units vs 6 year ago, 24 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 26 units vs 16 year ago, 53 months
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate