It’s no longer a secret or a surprise–our market is on a tear and has been all year long. The media took a while to catch on, but all the media outlets are reporting various positive statistics almost on a daily basis. Dallas home sales were up 29% in October vs year ago and are up 17% year-to-date. Home sales are rebounding throughout the country, thanks to record low mortgage rates, an improving job market, and a drop in foreclosures to a five year low, reducing the supply of distressed homes for sale. Home prices posted the biggest percentage gain in more than two years in the third quarter, +3.6% including the biggest gain in five years in September. Dallas saw a 9% improvement in median sales price in October, 7% year-to-date. Upward pressure on prices can in part be attributed to the record low inventory, now just 4 1/2 months supply. It’s a lot more fun to write this blog post than it was two and three years ago!
Housing starts on a national basis are up 42% over a year ago. That is a good number, but we are still in short supply of new housing, so I expect home builders will have another good year in 2013 as they try to keep up with demand. And, as we have heard, the Federal Reserve is committed to a low-interest rate policy through 2014, as the economy is still fragile and growing too slowly. Great for home buyers; not so great for fixed income seniors!
But…let’s not pop the champagne corks yet, as we still have Washington policy makers playing politics with our economy and well-being. We might have a better idea in about 30 days whether lawmakers act to improve job growth prospects, which, along with interest rates, are always the keys to housing health.
The individual markets I track in our area are all up double digits in sales for the first 10 months of the year vs year ago. In October, only the Park Cities area recorded a drop in sales (-10%) from last year, due mostly to the lack of inventory–fewer homes available to buy. Homes that were purchased were at a lower price point, overall, than a year ago there, reflected by the lower median sales price. North Dallas saw a 79% increase in sales but a 35% drop in median sales price. The lower end was selling pretty well there last month! Remodel opportunities or tear downs? We’ll see.
By price category, single family homes are up double digits in each price point, from $200,000 to $1,000,000+. The lowest inventory is in the lower price ranges, just 4 months in the $200,000 to $299,000 range. It builds slowly as the price ranges rise. For condos and townhomes, however, we see excellent sales growth in the $200,000 to $599,000 range, but it stalls out over $600,000. There were no condo or townhome sales over $1 million in October. Scroll down for more details…
Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 29%, med price up 9%, DOM 70, down 20%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 7%, DOM 74, down 16%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 58%, med price up 23%, DOM 89, down 34%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 13%, med price up 10%, DOM 97, down 21%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales down 10%, med price down 74%, DOM 90, down 1%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 19%, med price down 1%, DOM 78, down 21%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 51%, med price up 27%, DOM 62, down 35%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 28%, med price up 7%, DOM 76, down 18%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 79%, med price down 35%, DOM 72, down 34%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 27%, med price down 9%, DOM 92, down 17%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 59%, med price down 6%, DOM 75, down 27%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 33%, med price up 3%, DOM 66, down 23%.
Northwest Dallas:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 32%, DOM 66, down 11%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 28%, med price up 14%, DOM 73, down 15%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 71%, med price up 19%, DOM 54, down 27%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 32%, med price up 11%, DOM 55, down 26%.
Plano:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 26%, med price down 1%, DOM 47, down 24%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 18%, med price up 3%, DOM 56, down 25%.
Frisco:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 3%, DOM 58, down 19%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 58, down 23%.
Richardson:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 43, down 46%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 56, down 24%.
Southlake:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 54%, med price down 1%, DOM 91, up 15%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 31%, med price up 1%, DOM 72, down 15%.
Coppell
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 59%, med price up 11%, DOM 48, down 30%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 54, down 23%.
Allen:
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 43%, med price up 7%, DOM 50, down 32%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 16%, med price up 3%, DOM 57, down 21%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Oct 12 vs 11: Sales up 22%, med price up 12%, DOM 89, down 16%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 4%, DOM 84, down 17%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011:
$200-299K (18.6% of sales): up 28%, 4 months inventory
$300-399K (8.0% of sales): up 32%, 5 months inventory
$400-499K (3.6% of sales): up 27%, 6 months inventory
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): up 23%, 7 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 18%, 8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 24%, 10 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 22%, 10 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 13%, 12 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.0% of sales): up 22%, 13 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011.
$200-299K (16.7% of sales): 600 units vs 433 units year ago, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.1% of sales): 219 units vs 190 units year ago, 8 months
$400-499K (3.5% of sales): 126 units vs 69 units year ago, 6 months
$500-599K (1.6% of sales): 56 units vs 38 units year ago, 10 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 18 units year ago, 18 months
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 18 units vs 17 units year ago, 12 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 11 units vs 6 units year ago, 11 months
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 3 units vs 5 units year ago, 30 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 21 units vs 26 units year ago, 34 months
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540