For all the “October Surprises” and the chaos leading up to the election, our October sales and price changes were not too surprising. Unless, of course, you consider a 1% increase in average sales price for the greater Dallas area a surprise. The purveyors of bad economic news are not hanging out in Texas. No cameras here. Yes, our sales are down double digits, which has been the case for months, but our prices are holding up, in most areas, which is really the important statistic. Texas actually reported job gains in October, while much of the rest of the country was facing heavy layoffs. Texas has an $11 billion surplus, while several states are asking for federal bailouts. There is no crystal ball here, and anything can happen, but the state’s fundamentals look awfully good.
We’ll soon see what November real estate activity looked like, and I promise to get that report out to you sooner than did I write October’s results. Keep in mind October sales were the result of contracts written in September, and the Lehman Bros collapse, the first shoe to fall, was on September 15th. The market psychology has been very ugly since then, but it did include the last two weeks of September. Texas, and Dallas in particular, with economies that are out-performing the rest of the nation, stand to attract more relocations of individuals looking for work and companies fleeing high tax states. Yet, the oil and gas industry, which accounted for 83,000 new jobs this year, is “back to normal” with crude prices at $50/barrel. The Barnet Shale gas drilling activity, concentrated in the counties just west of Dallas County, has pumped a lot of money into our local economy but has now slowed considerably. So, we’ll see how it goes.
Looking at the submarkets I track in this report (I will add Allen and Rockwall County/Heath in January), average sales prices are up in several areas and in no case down more than 3% in any of these submarkets for the 10 months year to date. Sales are down in all these markets, but only Frisco has a year to date sales drop less than 10%. Sales are down somewhat uniformly in all price categories for single family homes, with the over $1 million dollar properties only off 8% in volume this year. In the condo and townhome category, sales are actually up in one price category–the $500’s–(well, by one townhome) compared to last year. There is a large backlog in inventory, at least a one year supply for condos and townhomes at current absorption rates.
Is this a good time to buy real estate? If you are a contrarian, it certainly is. It is an asset that holds value better than most. And, with the rush to Treasuries, driving the 10-year bond to all time highs (and record low yields), mortgage rates are looking great and getting even better. Look for refinance opportunities this winter, but be mindful of windows of opportunity to do this, as stimulus packages can boost stocks (we really do want to see this) which will steal money from the bond market and lead to higher interest rates.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 1%, DOM 82, up 8%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 2%, DOM 81, up 11%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales up 21%, avg price down 28%, DOM 142, up 42%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 11%, DOM 114, up 18%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 2%, avg price up 13%, DOM 84, up 17%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 2%, DOM 92, up 39%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 8%, DOM 71, up 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price unchanged, DOM 76, up 23%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price down 20%, DOM 98, up 32%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 2%, DOM 98, up 42%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price up 23%, DOM 90, up 45%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 27%, avg price unchanged, DOM 73, up 33%.
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price down 8%, DOM 92, down 53%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 6%, DOM 76, up 29%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 14%, DOM 63, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 2%, DOM 58, up 14%.
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price up 5%, DOM 65, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 28%.
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price up 1%, DOM 93, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 90, up 22%.
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 34%, avg price up 4%, DOM 64, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 3%, DOM 64, up 16%.
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales up 12%, avg price down 7%, DOM 89, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 3%, DOM 73, up 1%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 13%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.6% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): down 14%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 12%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): down 22%, 18 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 17%, 19 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 8%, 20 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 v 2007.
$200-299K (17.2% of sales): 661 units vs 719 units year ago, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (7.1% of sales): 273 units vs 379 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 109 units vs 131 units year ago, 19 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 74 units vs 73 units year ago, 18 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 31 units vs 33 units year ago, 27 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 15 units year ago, 69 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 6 units year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 11 year ago, 22 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 21 units vs 26 year ago, 52 months
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate