Dallas is one of the most undervalued markets in the country, as reported again in the Dec 12th issue of The Dallas Morning News, but you wouldn’t know it by our recent sales pattern. The median home price in Dallas is 28% below “fair value” according to the Global Insight Group, but area-wide sales in November were down 16% from year ago. Year to date, we are 7% behind 2006 sales. Of course, we are happy to be undervalued and not overvalued, and with mortgage interest rates as low or lower than last year at this time, Dallas is well-positioned for a rebound in sales once we get past some of the structural issues we’ve been reading and hearing about, including excessive builder inventory and foreclosures. Anyone as old as I am knows this housing business is a cyclical one, but in Dallas, we have been spared, relatively speaking.
We do have some bright spots in November’s numbers to celebrate, including Park Cities-area sales up 24% and North Dallas sales up 45%. Okay, this represents just 15 more houses in Park Cities and 20 more houses in North Dallas than in November last year, but it’s in the plus column and we’ll take it. And, average sales price was up 34% (again) in Uptown-Oak Lawn, 29% in East Dallas, and 11% in Plano. We are pretty sure this average sales price surge is not evenly distributed across all sales, but instead represents sales skewed to higher price points and new construction. In Uptown, we are seeing and will continue to see more closings of condos at the Ritz Carlton, W Hotel, One Arts Plaza, and other high end projects. In the M Streets and Lakewood, we are seeing more sales of remodeled older homes and newer construction. In Plano, newer construction is picking up the slack.
Far North Dallas is another story, with November sales and average sales price down double digits. The band (sounds like a weather map) stretching from Far North Dallas to Richardson to Lake Highlands was very soft last month, recording lower sales and lower average sales price. Thanks to a stronger first and second quarter, the year-to-date numbers are a bit better.
As long as the housing industry remains in the news, we probably won’t see a shift in psychology to a stronger buying pattern. But slowly and surely, word is getting out that Dallas (and most of Texas) housing is a good deal and ripe for the picking, and this is important information for local and relocating buyers.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 16%, avg price up 8%, DOM 80, up 11%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 7%, avg price up 5%, DOM 73, up 6%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 4%, avg price up 34%, DOM 104, up 30%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 15%, DOM 97, up 18%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales up 24%, avg price down 2%, DOM 71, up 29%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 4%, avg price up 12%, DOM 67, up 12%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 11%, avg price up 29%, DOM 70, down 1%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 9%, DOM 63, down 2%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales up 45%, avg price down 5%, DOM 87, up 1%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price up 21%, DOM 70, up 8%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price down 12%, DOM 63, down 6%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price down 1%, DOM 55, down 8%.
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 18%, avg price up 8%, DOM 72, up 4%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 1%, avg price up 5%, DOM 60, down 6%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price down 5%, DOM 49, up 26%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 3%, avg price up 1%, DOM 50, unchanged.
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price up 11%, DOM 72, up 26%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 5%, DOM 54, up 8%.
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 1%, avg price down 1%, DOM 89, up 19%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price up 4%, DOM 75, up 19%.
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales down 14%, avg price down 7%, DOM 68, up 45%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 5%, avg price up 2%, DOM 56, up 4%.
Nov 07 vs 06: Sales up 14%, avg price up 7%, DOM 56, down 25%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price up 8%, DOM 70, up 15%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:
$200-299K (16.2% of sales): down 5%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.3% of sales): up 3%, 7 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): up 5%, 9 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 8%, 11 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): up 8%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 22%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 4%, 14 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 12%, 14 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 16%, 17 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006.
$200-299K (14.6% of sales): 763 units vs 589 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.9% of sales): 410 units vs 320 units year ago, 12 months
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): 138 units vs 156 units year ago, 16 months
$500-599K (1.5% of sales): 79 units vs 72 units year ago, 24 months
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): 35 units vs 28 units year ago, 23 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 16 units vs 22 units year ago, 40 months
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 6 units year ago, 62 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 12 units vs 6 year ago, 24 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 29 units vs 18 year ago, 49 months
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate