May came in as a redux of April, with sales lagging in the lower price ranges and doing pretty well in the upper price ranges. Sales in the $100,000 to $190,000 range were down 22% to 35% from last year, while almost all price points over $400,000 saw sales ahead of last year. This is a pattern we will continue to see, until something breaks in favor of those lower-priced home buyers, many being first-time home buyers, looking for a way out of their rental property or apartment. That something, by the way, is called “jobs”.
We know the answer is not with interest rates. Mortgage rates hit a new low for 2011 this week. Conventional financing at 4 1/4% to 4 3/8% is simply beautiful, especially half way through the year, as the “experts” saw ever-increasing rates coming as a result of the end of QE2 in June. That 4 3/8% rate happens to make figuring how large the monthly payment is for any size loan very easy. The quirky math at this interest rate lets you calculate $5 for every $1000 borrowed. So, a $300,000 mortgage, for example, will run you $1500 per month in principle and interest, less than rent in a lot of places (taxes not included!). It is truly a great time to buy real estate.
This is one of the few silver linings of a struggling economy. Without a doubt, we would like to see strong job creation and a GDP growing at 5-7% a year. We’ve been there before. That kind of growth would produce higher interest rates, oh, like 6-7%, but all the plusses to a bustling economy would far outweigh the disappearance of these marvelous interest rates we have today.
Looking at the details (below), we actually have two submarkets reporting in with both sales and median prices ahead of last year through May, Park Cities and North Dallas. With a little luck, primarily new job creation, continued low rates, and maybe some policy changes in Washington, we can expand this list of two to many!
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 86, up 19%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 92, up 20%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 1%, med price up 20%, DOM 125, up 11%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 3%, med price unchanged, DOM 125, up 21%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
May 11 vs 10: Sales up 17%, med price up 1%, DOM 71, down 40%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 8%, med price up 2%, DOM 95, down 14%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 8%, med price up 17%, DOM 86, up 39%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 12%, med price up 16%, DOM 97, up 45%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
May 11 vs 10: Sales up 30%, med price unchanged, DOM 92, down 10%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales up 8%, med price up 7%, DOM 119, unchanged.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 31%, med price up 4%, DOM 88, up 35%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 17%, med price up 3%, DOM 93, up 21%.
Northwest Dallas:
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 5%, med price down 12%, DOM 63, up 21%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 14%, med price down 5%, DOM 85, up 29%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
May 11 vs 10: Sales up 13%, med price down 8%, DOM 69, up 11%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 3%, med price down 5%, DOM 74, up 21%.
Plano:
May 11 vs 10: Sales up 7%, med price up 8%, DOM 79, up 39%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 85, up 37%.
Frisco:
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 23%, med price up 2%, DOM 74, up 35%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 9%, med price up 3%, DOM 83, up 26%.
Richardson:
May 11 vs 10: Sales up 14%, med price up 4%, DOM 67, up 34%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 2%, med price down 4%, DOM 75, up 56%.
Southlake:
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 17%, med price up 4%, DOM 73, down 34%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 12%, med price up 3%, DOM 92, down 15%.
Coppell:
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 20%, med price up 4%, DOM 56, up 14%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 16%, med price down 3%, DOM 77, up 45%.
Allen:
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 23%, med price up 3%, DOM 49, down 16%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 75, up 12%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
May 11 vs 10: Sales down 18%, med price up 2%, DOM 100, up 52%.
YTD 11 vs 10: Sales down 7%, med price down 2%, DOM 101, up 23%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 15%, 9 months inventory
$300-399K (7.0% of sales): down 8%, 11 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): unchanged, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.6% of sales): up 15%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 14%, 15 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 10%, 17 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): down 7%, 19 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 65%, 19 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 15%, 21 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2011 vs 2010.
$200-299K (13.1% of sales): 185 units vs 234 units year ago, 15 months inventory
$300-399K (7.0% of sales): 99 units vs 87 units year ago, 13 months
$400-499K (2.3% of sales): 32 units vs 39 units year ago, 22 months
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): 19 units vs 22 units year ago, 22 months
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): 14 units vs 8 units year ago, 16 months
$700-799K (0.8% of sales): 11 units vs 4 units year ago, 11 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 6 units vs 3 units year ago, 19 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 42 months
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 15 units vs 15 units year ago, 27 months
Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website Dallas TX Home Values Blog — Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate, Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate