June home sales in Dallas extended the nice upward trend we have seen all year, in unit volume and median sales price. With the first half of 2012 in the books, overall Dallas area sales are up 14% versus a year ago, and the median sales price is up 7%. Our “days on market” which typically runs in the 90+ range is down to 78 days, a 13% improvement over a year ago.
Sales in the submarkets I track (below) are up across the board, with the largest year-to-date gains, all 30+%, in Northeast and Northwest sections of Dallas, Far North Dallas and Southlake. Median sales prices are up single digits in these 14 submarkets year-to-date, with the exceptions of Northwest Dallas (+12%), Allen (no change) and North Dallas (-11%). North Dallas is the only market in negative territory, median price-wise, as homes selling there are at a lesser value than the higher-priced homes sold in 2011. Snatching up tear-downs? Remodel opportunities?
Our housing market is not unique, as metros across the country are seeing big improvements in sales activity. Zillow reports that one third of the 167 metros it tracks posted annual price increases for the 2nd quarter. Zillow’s chief economist stated we’ve “hit bottom in values” despite the lingering mediocre economy. Ditto from the Wall Street Journal economics editor. This notion is gaining traction in most real estate reseach circles.
In Dallas as well as elsewhere, the modest uptick in demand is pushing prices higher due to the shrinking supply of homes. “Higher” just means 2-4%, but that’s better than where we’ve been the last three years. This shrinking supply is due to a lack of new construction over the last three years and, as I mentioned last month, homeowners just lacking interest in selling. Many are betting they can get a good price if they wait a little while. On the demand side, it’s not just the typical family contributing to this uptick in demand—there are more investors buying rental properties, including a surge in foreign investors looking for returns and stability. As long as interest rates remain at record lows (again!), the job picture improves, and incomes improve, the buyers will be there giving the potential sellers reason to get on the market.
And, speaking of interest rates…the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to below 3.5% on July 27th for the first time on records that date back 60 years! Amazing.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 11%, med price up 12%, DOM 68, down 20%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 14%, med price up 7%, DOM 78, down 13%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 61%, med price up 2%, DOM 84, down 33%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 2%, DOM 104, down 15%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 12%, med price up 11%, DOM 73, down 33%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 21%, med price up 1%, DOM 75, down 24%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 13%, med price up 4%, DOM 64, down 33%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 27%, med price up 3%, DOM 81, down 16%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 36%, med price down 16%, DOM 79, down 9%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price down 11%, DOM 97, down 14%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 10%, med price up 4%, DOM 60, down 21%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 31%, med price up 1%, DOM 69, down 22%.
Northwest Dallas:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 62%, med price up 12%, DOM 57, down 29%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 32%, med price up 12%, DOM 74, down 13%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 87%, med price up 5%, DOM 53, down 29%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 34%, med price up 6%, DOM 60, down 19%.
Plano:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 26%, med price up 4%, DOM 48, down 28%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 16%, med price up 5%, DOM 60, down 26%.
Frisco:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 10%, med price up 9%, DOM 43, down 30%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 15%, med price up 6%, DOM 63, down 19%.
Richardson:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 22%, med price down 1%, DOM 47, down 33%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 63, down 15%.
Southlake:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 32%, med price up 10%, DOM 74, down 11%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 32%, med price up 3%, DOM 74, down 17%.
Coppell
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales down 26%, med price up 15%, DOM 43, down 23%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 3%, med price up 2%, DOM 60, down 14%.
Allen:
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, down 44%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 10%, med price unchanged, DOM 61, down 18%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jun 12 vs 11: Sales up 21%, med price up 1%, DOM 82, down 15%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 87, down 14%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011:
$200-299K (18.3% of sales): up 26%, 5 months inventory
$300-399K (7.8% of sales): up 26%, 7 months inventory
$400-499K (3.5% of sales): up 27%, 8 months inventory
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): up 22%, 9 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 15%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 22%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 11%, 14 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 13%, 11 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 21%, 15 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011.
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): 332 units vs 246 units year ago, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (5.7% of sales): 115 units vs 117 units year ago, 9 months
$400-499K (3.8% of sales): 77 units vs 38 units year ago, 8 months
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): 34 units vs 24 units year ago, 11 months
$600-699K (0.3% of sales): 6 units vs 14 units year ago, 17 months
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 10 units vs 11 units year ago, 17 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 9 units vs 18 units year ago, 7 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 units vs 3 units year ago, 39 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 10 units vs 20 units year ago, 36 months
(C) Bob Edmonson 214-563-8540