Last month, I pointed out that the overall Dallas market, after many months with negative sales price comparisons to the previous year, bobbed to surface with “no change” in median sales price vs the previous year. Dallas had been in a 1-3% below year-ago levels mode for some time. Well, in July we made positive territory, obviously an even better achievement, with a PLUS 3% median price change. The last couple of months represents a short trend line, but we like the direction! And, to complement this result, the Wall Street Journal reported in this weekend’s edition (Aug 22nd) that a survey conducted by First American CoreLogic places just four major US markets in positive price change territory in June: Houston (+3.2%), Dallas (+1.7%), Austin (+1.0%) and San Antonio (+0.5%). Hmmm, they are all in Texas! The next best city was Denver (-2.3%) and it fell off rapidly from there, all the way down to Fort Myers, FL (-29.8%). If I were more technologically astute, I would imbed this neat little graph from the newspaper in this message.
While this is very good news, not all our submarkets in Dallas could claim positive results in July. A quick glance below shows some real disparity among different parts of town with respect to median sales price changes vs year ago numbers. The markets that are up, including Far North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Northeast Dallas, Plano, Frisco, Richardson (wow, +10%!) and Allen tend to be moderately priced areas for the most part where conventional financing reigns. This is an important point. Conventional loans top out at $417,000; beyond this borrowing level, you have “jumbo” loans. Conventional loans are still guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and lenders can still “ship” their loans off to these agencies. Jumbo loans are not guaranteed by the government, and lenders are very choosy as to whom they will make these loans. Why? Because they have to keep them on their books. As a result, there is a limit at any one financial institution as to how many jumbo loans can be made, and the lenders will charge a higher interest rate to offset their risk in keeping them in house. So, you can buy a home up to $521,250, put 20% down and have a $417,000 first lien mortgage. You might think this should be reflected in sales volume, but sales volume is still down in these areas. There are fewer buyers, because fewer buyers have the 20% down payment and higher credit scores. Second liens are also expensive (higher rates), and of course, there are no more stated income loans. Homes that are selling appear to be selling for more than those of last year, meaning, I think, that the fewer people that are buying are buying slightly pricier homes than year ago.
As we get a little closer to downtown Dallas, from Preston Hollow south, the picture changes. North Dallas, Park Cities and the surrounding area, Lakewood and Uptown/Victory are generally more expensive markets. They represent shorter commutes to downtown, are closer to more choices for restaurants and entertainment, and in the case of Park Cities, offer a superior school district. Median prices here are down 20% (Park Cities), 22% (Uptown), and 29% (North Dallas). There is no less demand for these areas. There are just fewer buyers with the wherewithall to buy. Compounding the problem for Uptown is the dominant product type of townhomes and condos. Condo financing is also very difficult to get, so condos priced above $521,250 face the double whammy of jumbo financing and condo financing.
A check of the sales by price for condos makes this pretty clear. Condos (and townhomes) priced above $500,000 saw a total of…5 closings in July. Anywhere in Dallas. It’s really almost unbelievable. The housing market desperately needs some help from Big Brother in this category.
We’re thankful there is plenty of “affordable” housing in Dallas. The really nice transportation network is the reason, allowing people willing to drive a little longer and not face massive tie-ups everyday, to live further out in less expensive homes. We are also thankful that our economy is diversified and relatively healthy and our state is well managed. Otherwise, we could have some of those California or Florida numbers!
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 78, up 1%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 1%, DOM 81, unchanged.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 22%, DOM 114, up 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 17%, DOM 104, down 4%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 20%, DOM 104, up 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 37%, med price down 11%, DOM 102, up 12%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 5%, DOM 69, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 8%, DOM 74, down 3%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 29%, DOM 92, down 14%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 18%, DOM 105, up 11%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 27%, med price up 1%, DOM 64, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price unchanged, DOM 73, unchanged.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 9%, DOM 77, up 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 3%, DOM 84, up 11%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 25%, med price up 7%, DOM 72, up 38%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 4%, DOM 65, up 14%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 61, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 4%, DOM 64, down 7%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 2%, med price up 2%, DOM 73, down 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 81, down 10%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price up 10%, DOM 48, down 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 1%, DOM 60, down 8%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 3%, DOM 132, up 71%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price down 6%, DOM 103, up 49%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 7%, DOM 42, up 8%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 8%, DOM 47, down 16%.
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 3%, DOM 89, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 2%, DOM 76, down 7%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price down 1%, DOM 95, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 5%, DOM 89, down 3%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 19%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 20%, 10 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 25%, 13 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 24%, 16 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 33%, 20 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 40%, 23 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 28%, 30 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 31%, 30 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 44%, 37 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 09 vs 08:
$200-299K (16.2% of sales): 338 units vs 502 units year ago, 15 months inventory
$300-399K (6.1% of sales): 128 units vs 200 units year ago, 21 months
$400-499K (2.3% of sales): 49 units vs 71 units year ago, 33 months
$500-599K (0.7% of sales): 15 units vs 56 units year ago, 66 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 9 units vs 21 units year ago, 57 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 4 units vs 7 units year ago, 116 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 7 unit vs 9 units year ago, 41 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 unit vs 8 year ago, 98 months
$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 6 unit vs 12 year ago, 142 months
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate