Let’s talk prices first. In 2010, there was a fair amount of press regarding home prices around the country. There are several “reliable” sources frequently quoted, such as Case-Shiller and Zillow, among others. The problem is Texas is one of a few “non-reporting” states, meaning home sales prices are not recorded in the county records. There are pros and cons to this practice, a subject for discussion at a later time. Without the public record, the MLS is the only source for accurate price information in Texas, so be a little wary of predictions and pronouncements of prices derived from third-party sources. Case Shiller has a nice set of algorithms, and often comes close, but their numbers are estimates and have a 2-month lag time when announced.
The real numbers for Dallas at the end of the year were pretty encouraging overall. The average price of homes sold in the greater Dallas area in December was up 14% over a year ago, and the median was up 7%. For the year as a whole, average sales prices were up 5% and median prices of homes sold up 2%. This doesn’t mean that homes are necessarily appreciating in value, although that certainly can be a component, but that the homes which are selling are higher priced than those that sold last year.
As you know from reading this report over the years, every submarket behaves differently, so we have over achievers and under achievers when it comes to prices and sales. In December, the over achievers for median price included Lake Highlands (+34%), Lakewood/M Streets (+14%), Uptown/Oak Lawn (+14%), Park Cities (+10%), Northwest Dallas (+7%) and Allen (+5%). For 2010, ten of fourteen submarkets reported higher median sales prices vs 2009. Mortgage interest rates play a big role in this as well, as a lower interest rate allows the purchase of a higher-priced property for the same monthly payment. And we know that in October, we reached the lowest mortgage rates in our lifetimes.
Lower interest rates also allow the purchase of the “same” house for a lower monthly payment. While these lower rates created a huge incentive to buy homes, too many potential buyers were simply unable to act on the impulse. Lenders were (and are) under great pressure to avoid making loans to prospects with less than steller credit and/or with unreliable income and little cash in the bank. As a result, sales in Dallas in December were down 6% from year ago, and for the year as a whole, sales were off 7% . The sales slump occurred primarily in the $100K to $199K bracket, where the bulk of Dallas’s homes are priced.
In the fourteen submarkets I track, only three reported lower sales than during last December. This year-end surge was not enough for some of the markets, which still finished the year below last year’s sales figures. For the year as a whole, though, only four of the submarkets finished ahead of 2009 in sales: North Dallas (+30%), Park Cities (+29%), Southlake (+4%) and Uptown/Oak Lawn (+1%).
Will December’s good numbers carry over into the new year and the spring market? I think it will, as Dallas is predicted to continue with nice job creation, and interest rates (who really knows?) continue to behave themselves. Happy New Year, Y’all.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales down 6%, med price up 7%, DOM 91, up 10%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 79, down 1%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales down 6%, med price up 14%, DOM 149, up 37%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 1%, med price up 6%, DOM 115, up 8%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 21%, med price up 10%, DOM 116, down 18%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 30%, med price up 4%, DOM 122, up 6%
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 3%, med price up 14%, DOM 91, up 10%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 74, down 1%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 49%, med price down 1%, DOM 142, down 8%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 30%, med price down 10%, DOM 129, up 10%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 8%, med price down 1%, DOM 88, up 9%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 7%, med price unchanged, DOM 81, up 16%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales down 14%, med price up 7%, DOM 91, up 17%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 71, down 12%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 59%, med price up 34%, DOM 90, up 14%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 10%, med price up 6%, DOM 64, down 7%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 7%, med price down 3%, DOM 91, up 28%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 11%, med price up 3%, DOM 67, up 6%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales down 9%, med price down 1%, DOM 93, up 13%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 10%, med price up 5%, DOM 71, down 9%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 28%, med price down 1%, DOM 77, up 38%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 56, up 4%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 27%, med price down 7%, DOM 95, down 29%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 94, down 10%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 3%, med price down 6%, DOM 76, up 20%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 5%, med price up 7%, DOM 57, up 12%.
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 59%, med price up 5%, DOM 80, up 18%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 2%, med price up 4%, DOM 67, down 9%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Dec 10 vs 09: Sales up 13%, med price up 5%, DOM 101, down 6%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 85, down 8%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2010 vs 2009:
$200-299K (16.8% of sales): down 5%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (7.1% of sales): up 5%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): up 4%, 9 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 1%, 11 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): up 16%, 11 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 20%, 12 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 23%, 11 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): up 1%, 19 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.0% of sales): up 26%, 17 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2010 vs 2009.
$200-299K (14.6% of sales): 540 units vs 591 units year ago, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (5.5% of sales): 203 units vs 251 units year ago, 14 months
$400-499K (2.0% of sales): 74 units vs 84 units year ago, 21 months
$500-599K (1.2% of sales): 44 units vs 35 units year ago, 23 months
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): 27 units vs 17 units year ago, 15 months
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 20 units vs 16 units year ago, 12 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 12 units vs 20 units year ago, 20 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 9 units year ago, 20 months
$1MM + (0.9% of sales): 34 units vs 24 units year ago, 24 months
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
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