Overall sales for our region were down 10% in August, bringing our year-to-date unit sales total down 6%. Of course, as we dissect the numbers, we usually discover some markets doing much better than others. The Park Cities area was up 11% in August, the M Streets and Lakewood up 9%, and North Dallas and Lake Highlands up a whopping 34% vs year ago. For the eight months year-to-date, there is not one submarket I study that is up or down double digits, reflecting a largely steady-to-soft sales picture, but not one for hand-wringing. Average sales prices are ahead of last year, with the exception of Far North Dallas, a very good indication that the market is pretty healthy. As mentioned in early letters to you, the negative sales numbers are skewed to the lower-priced single family homes (less than $300,000) and to the lower-priced condos (less than $160,000). And, while there is still slow absorption of the priciest condos, the number of units is not great and doesn’t leave a big imprint on the market.
Housing demand is not the big reason for the slower sales pace. Our local economy is still plugging along nicely. This link from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas sheds a lot of light on the local economy:
http://dallasfed.org/data/hotstats/econ/2007/econ0709.cfm. Portfolio loan investor demand is the bigger problem. Lender rules and requirements are stiffining, because Wall Street is not buying loan portfolios with risky, adjustable rate mortgages and other non-conventional types of loans. The adjustable rate mortgages are “adjusting” now (“reset” is the industry term). This reset process is forcing many homeowners who bought with the teaser rates to quit making their mortgage payments. The growing foreclosure rate has caused many of the investors, who have been burned by the current foreclosure problem, to shift to buying safer, more conservative loan packages, loans on homes with 20% or more equity. They figure these folks are not going to easily walk away from their mortgages and forfeit their equity. As a result, only the more well-qualified and lower credit risk buyers are going to be able to borrow at the most favorable rates, shutting out a portion of the market, estimated by some to be 15-20% of potential home buyers. Yes, there are still plenty of loans being made, and there are lenders who can still make a 100% financed loan, but that buyer will have to have good collateral. If you are a buyer, your timing continues to be favorable, as it has been for most of the year. Rates on 30-year loans are lower than in spring, and there are plenty of lenders looking for your business.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).
Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 10%, avg price up 7%, DOM 69, up 3%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 6%, avg price up 5%, DOM 72, up 4%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 14%, avg price up 12%, DOM 101, up 58%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 5%, avg price up 10%, DOM 99, up 22%.
Park Cities, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales up 11%, avg price up 3%, DOM 67, up 3%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price up 8%, DOM 66, up 5%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales up 9%, avg price down 1%, DOM 61, down 5%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 7%, DOM 62, down 2%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales up 34%, avg price up 32%, DOM 64, down 3%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 22%, DOM 68, up 6%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 2%, avg price unchanged, DOM 49, down 6%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales unchanged, avg price down 1%, DOM 54, down 8%.
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price down 1%, DOM 46, down 19%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 5%, avg price up 5%, DOM 58, down 11%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales up 34%, avg price up 16%, DOM 37, down 5%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 5%, avg price up 10%, DOM 50, down 2%.
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price unchanged, DOM 49, down 8%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 11%, avg price up 4%, DOM 51, up 4%.
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 4%, DOM 73, up 26%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 2%, avg price up 6%, DOM 72, up 16%.
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 13%, avg price up 3%, DOM 47, up 4%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales down 3%, avg price up 3%, DOM 53, down 2%.
Aug 07 vs 06: Sales down 9%, avg price up 4%, DOM 58, down 2%.
YTD 07 vs 06: Sales up 2%, avg price up 6%, DOM 71, up 31%.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006:
$200-299K (16.5% of sales): down 3%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (7.0% of sales): up 3%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): up 8%, 9 months inventory
$500-599K (1.5% of sales): up 12%, 11 months inventory
$600-699K (1.0% of sales): up 14%, 10 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 29%, 12 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 6%, 14 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 10%, 15 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 21%, 15 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2007 vs 2006.
$200-299K (14.2% of sales): 569 units vs 429 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.8% of sales): 310 units vs 250 units year ago, 12 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 110 units vs 122 units year ago, 17 months
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): 58 units vs 52 units year ago, 20 months
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): 26 units vs 21 units year ago, 26 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 12 units vs 16 units year ago, 35 months
$800-899K (0.1% of sales): 5 units vs 4 units year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 10 units vs 4 year ago, 18 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 17 units vs 14 year ago, 56 months
Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
Oh by the way, if you or someone you know is considering buying or selling a home, please give me their phone number and I will be happy to follow up with them.