Dallas home sales in August slipped 1% vs year-ago sales reflecting a continuation of insufficient inventory and rising home prices. If you recall, June sales were also lower than year-ago. July’s better-than-year-ago sales was a nice bump but not able to sustain the momentum. We also saw an 8% increase in the days on market in August. Through eight months this year, 11 of the 16 submarkets I track are still ahead of last year’s sales pace, but all in the single digit range. Park Cities’ big August (+29%) brought this market into positive sales territory (+4%) for the year.
Scrolling down, if you look at sales of single family homes by price point, you will see that sales in price points at or above $200,000 are stronger than the Dallas area average, up in all cases but in the $800’s. We live in a large metro with approximately 28% of housing priced below $200,000 and weighing down the average.
On inventory, the good news is that builders started more homes in the second quarter than any period in the last 12 years, up 13%. For the 12 months ending in the second quarter, Dallas started 36,264 homes. And none too soon, as pent-up demand remains strong. Dallas remains one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country, at more than a 4% rate in the first four months of 2018, translating to 35,000 new jobs. With pending sales down 2% in August, we need a continued rise in the number of homes listed for sale to provide more choices for buyers now in the market.
Now a side note for homeowners who wish to rent out their homes on a short-term basis (AirBnB for example): The Texas Supreme Court unanimously sided with a San Antonio homeowner who was renting his house to others, stating that homeowners should be able to use their homes as they see fit without government intrusion. This ruling will force homeowner associations across the state to reverse clauses in their CCR’s calling that usage a violation of deed restrictions.
On rates, as of this date, you can get a jumbo mortgage to buy or refinance up to $1.5 million, 5% down, no PMI with 6-9 months reserves and with a 700 or better credit score. Rates are around 4 5/8%.
Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track. DOM stands for “Days on Market”…
Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 4%, DOM 42 up 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price up 3%, DOM 66, up 94%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 29%, med price up 3%, DOM 65, down 27%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 5%, DOM 62, down 11%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 34, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 36 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 30%, DOM 88, up 38%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 13%, DOM 77, up 31%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 31%, med price up 12%, DOM 20, down 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 37, down 5%.
Northwest Dallas:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 8%, DOM 34, down 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, up 3%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 12%, DOM 50, up 61%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 39, up 22%.
Plano:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 3, DOM 36, up 33%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 35, up 17%.
Frisco:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 6%, DOM 53, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 3%, DOM 54, up 23%.
Richardson:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 28, up 27%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 30%.
Southlake:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 1%, DOM 46, up 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 50, down 2%.
Coppell:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 21%, med price up 10%, DOM 34, down 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 37, down 12%
Allen:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price unchanged, DOM 34, up 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 1%, DOM 35 up 9%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 12%, DOM 49, up 14%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 4%, DOM 50, up 14%.
Cedar Hill:
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 20, down 31%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 10%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Aug 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 21%, DOM 41, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 15%, DOM 44, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.5% of sales): up 11%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 9%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.1% of sales): up 13%, 4.0 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 8%, 4.8 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 5%, 5.6 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): uo 4%, 6.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): down 2%, 6.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 7%, 8.1 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 9%, 9.1 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.3% of sales): 1175 units vs 1147 units year ago, 2.6 months inventory
$300-399K (17.9% of sales): 830 units vs 728 units year ago, 4.5 months inventory
$400-499K (8.0% of sales): 371 units vs 343 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$500-599K (3.6 of sales): 165 units vs 108 units year ago, 6.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 66 units vs 70 units year ago, 8.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 27 units vs 26 units year ago, 9.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 22 units vs 20 units year ago, 8.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 15 units vs 18 units year ago, 8.0 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 49 units vs 52 units year ago, 13.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540