Home sales in Dallas are still on a roll, with overall Dallas sales in August up 18% over last July and up 16% year-to-date vs year ago. Median sales prices were up 8% in July and 7% year-to-date. The odds are pretty good that we should continue to see healthy home sales going forward, as the Federal Reserve publicly committed to extend the policy of maintaining very low interest rates into 2014. I worry a little bit about job creation, taxes and regulation, as these factors can make a big impact on the direction home sales take. We won’t begin to get clarity on this until after the November election. There are lots of scenarios based on who wins the White House and how Congress is reconfigured, especially the Senate. The housing industry is such a huge component of our national economic health (we got a rude reminder in 2008), that it is hard to imagine that those lessons learned will be forgotten going forward. Regulations are already making mortgage financing burdensome, and if you have recently bought a home or re-financed a home, you know how much the paperwork requirements and time to process have increased. Tax reform of some kind seems inevitable, and there are politicians aiming at the home mortgage interest deduction. The National Assn of Realtors is on record (strongly) to oppose this, and it carries a lot of weight. The trickle-down from the sale of a home is amazing: refrigerators, washer/dryers, carpet, paint, labor to remodel or install–all kind of sales of goods and services depend on a robust housing industry. And, of course, there are jobs. More people with jobs means more housing purchased, which produces a stronger economy, which produces yet more hiring, which produces more home buyers and delivers more tax revenue to the government. As the multiplier effect continues, house prices improve, building more equity in owners’ balance sheets. This would be the ideal outcome for the housing industry.
Okay, back to our Dallas market…all of the submarkets I track showed sales gains over a year ago except in Uptown/Oak Lawn. But all are up year-to-date. Median sales prices are up in all markets year-to-date except in North Dallas and Coppell. Sales of single family homes in all price points above $200,000 are up double digits. The strongest sales of condos and townhomes looks to be in the $200,000-$500,000 range, with nice increases year over year. What continues to amaze is the reduced inventory for sale. Days on market and month’s inventory fell again this month to lows not seen in years. In many markets year-to-date, the DOM is now in the 50’s. I’ve touched on this in previous blogs, but I believe this will inevitably result in higher home prices and more sellers coming to market on a wide scale. It’s already happening in some parts of town.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 18%, med price up 8%, DOM 67, down 22%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 16%, med price up 7%, DOM 75, down 15%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales down 5%, med price up 13%, DOM 84, down 40%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 10%, med price up 4%, DOM 101, down 19%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 55%, med price up 22%, DOM 56, down 38%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 23%, med price up 1%, DOM 76, down 22%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 13%, med price up 7%, DOM 79, down 18%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 23%, med price up 5%, DOM 78, down 17%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 35%, med price down 7%, DOM 77, down 19%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 26%, med price down 6%, DOM 92, down 18%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 16%, DOM 61, down 26%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 29%, med price up 2%, DOM 65, down 24%.
Northwest Dallas:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 29%, med price up 6%, DOM 50, down 50%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 28%, med price up 8%, DOM 74, down 16%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 15%, med price up 15%, DOM 52, down 40%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 28%, med price up 8%, DOM 74, down 16%.
Plano:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 3%, med price up 4%, DOM 49, down 31%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 17%, med price up 4%, DOM 57, down 25%.
Frisco:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 33%, med price down 10%, DOM 46, down 34%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 16%, med price up 4%, DOM 59, down 22%.
Richardson:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 24%, med price up 4%, DOM 45, down 34%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 20%, med price up 3%, DOM 58, down 21%.
Southlake:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 42%, med price up 1%, DOM 62, down 30%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 36%, med price up 1%, DOM 69, down 19%.
Coppell
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 8%, med price down 15%, DOM 44, down 31%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 4%, med price down 1%, DOM 57, down 15%.
Allen:
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 22%, med price up 1%, DOM 54, down 16%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 59, down 18%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Aug 12 vs 11: Sales up 21%, med price up 8%, DOM 66, down 28%.
YTD 12 vs 11: Sales up 21%, med price up 5%, DOM 83, down 16%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011:
$200-299K (18.6% of sales): up 29%, 4 months inventory
$300-399K (8.1% of sales): up 29%, 6 months inventory
$400-499K (3.6% of sales): up 27%, 6 months inventory
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): up 21%, 7 months inventory
$600-699K (1.1% of sales): up 15%, 9 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): up 29%, 10 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): up 18%, 11 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 10%, 12 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 25%, 13 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2012 vs 2011.
$200-299K (16.9% of sales): 481 units vs 352 units year ago, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.0% of sales): 172 units vs 156 units year ago, 8 months
$400-499K (3.4% of sales): 97 units vs 72 units year ago, 8 months
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): 48 units vs 31 units year ago, 9 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 11 units vs 16 units year ago, 18 months
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 13 units vs 13 units year ago, 12 months
$800-899K (0.4 of sales): 10 units vs 8 units year ago, 10 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 units vs 5 units year ago, 48 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 14 units vs 25 units year ago, 37 months
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540