In August, Dallas home sales continued to show double-digit improvement over year ago sales, up 16% for the month and up 20% year-to-date. The median sales price was up 12% for the month, 11% year-to-date. As reported last month, Dallas is just one of two cities (Denver being the other) with prices (+4%) above the “pre-crash” level in 2007, with the average of the other major metros still down around 20%.
Inventory is still tight, as evidenced by the continuing slide in the number of days on market, city-wide and in the 14 markets I track (below). The most startling numbers are in Coppell, Allen, Richardson and Plano, with only 19-28 days on average separating a new listing from a contract. There is already a sense out there that this trend will continue into the normally slower fall selling season due to continued strong demand for the fewer homes available. We’ll see what the September numbers look like in a couple of weeks.
The interest rate picture is a bit cloudy, but with the near universal consensus that rates will be on their way up. We had a 1% bounce in conforming rates (for conventional 30 year mortgages) earlier this summer, and then a small reduction when the Federal Reserve announced it would delay its tapering program. At the same time, jumbo rates (for loans over $417,000) fell below conforming rates for the first time in anyone’s memory. Jumbo’s operate in the private lending market, as opposed to the Fannie and Freddie markets, and investor demand for these loans is improving.
For future buyers, it is an important time to consider the near term economics of delaying a purchase decision. First, it’s a given that rates will rise in 2014, as the Federal Reserve will slow its purchases of mortgage backed securities, which has encouraged banks to lower their rates. The new Federal Reserve chairman, not yet seated, will find this easier to do on her (?) watch, if Mr. Bernanke doesn’t beat her to it. We all know these interest rates have been artificially depressed for economic stimulus goals. Second, home prices are on the rise. Every uptick of 1% in price means 10% less buying power. Third, homes are still affordable. The Housing Affordability Index, most recently at 172.7, relates income to income required to qualify for a loan. The higher the index, the better against the 100 benchmark. And finally, inflation will be on its way in 2014-15. Besides rising home equity, having a fixed price 30 year mortgage is a wonderful thing in an inflationary environment.
Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the “Sales by Price Category” info. DOM is short for Days on Market.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 16%, med price up 12%, DOM 50, down 26%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 20%, med price up 11%, DOM 57, down 24%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 44%, med price down 12%, DOM 53, down 36%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 49%, med price up 10%, DOM 66, down 35%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales unchanged, med price up 21%, DOM 56, unchanged.
YTD vs 12: Sales down 2%, med price up 9%, DOM 57, down 25%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 17%, med price up 16%, DOM 35, down 54%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 23%, med price up 13%, DOM 46, down 41%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 25%, med price up 41%, DOM 45, down 42%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 29%, med price up 16%, DOM 59, down 37%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 54%, med price up 17%, DOM 43, down 28%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 33%, med price up 14%, DOM 51, down 22%.
Northwest Dallas:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 38%, med price up 23%, DOM 44, down 14%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 17%, med price up 16%, DOM 50, down 32%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 42%, med price up 21%, DOM 34, down 36%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 16%, med price up 10%, DOM 42, down 26%.
Plano:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 31%, med price up 10%, DOM 28, down 40%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 24%, med price up 9%, DOM 40, down 30%.
Frisco:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 21%, med price up 19%, DOM 38, down 17%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 28%, med price up 10%, DOM 42, down 29%.
Richardson:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 32%, med price up 12%, DOM 28, down 42%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 26%, med price up 7%, DOM 35, down 40%.
Southlake:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 4%, med price up 9%, DOM 45, down 26%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 22%, med price up 5%, DOM 57, down 17%.
Coppell
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 12%, med price up 23%, DOM 19, down 54%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 19%, med price up 14%, DOM 32, down 43%.
Allen:
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 20%, med price up 28%, DOM 22, down 51%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 16%, med price up 21%, DOM 37, down 37%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Aug 13 vs 12: Sales up 64%, med price up 9%, DOM 56, down 13%.
YTD vs 12: Sales up 38%, med price up 9%, DOM 63, down 24%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2013 vs 2012:
$200-299K (20.7% of sales): up 33%, 2.8 months inventory
$300-399K (9.9% of sales): up 48%, 3.5 months inventory
$400-499K (4.6% of sales): up 54%, 4.3 months inventory
$500-599K (2.2% of sales): up 51%, 5.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): up 39%, 6.1 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): up 47%, 7.3 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): up 40%, 7.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 31%, 9.0 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): up 20%, 11.6 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2013 vs 2012.
$200-299K (19.3% of sales): 759 units vs 405 units year ago, 3.4 months inventory
$300-399K (7.6% of sales): 298 units vs 173 units year ago, 4.5 months inventory
$400-499K (3.7% of sales): 144 units vs 96 units year ago, 5.9 months inventory
$500-599K (1.8% of sales): 72 units vs 46 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): 24 units vs 12 units year ago, 10.3 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): 26 units vs 13 units year ago, 3.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 10 units year ago, 5.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 2 unit year ago, 14.0 months inventory
$1MM + (0.8% of sales): 32 units vs 15 units year ago, 11.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540
(See my interview on Channel 8 news regarding the “frustrated buyer” at
http://www.wfaa.com/home/Homebuyers-realtors-report-increasingly-crowded-housing-market-211504151.html )