It’s a remarkable time in the Dallas home sales market. Our month’s inventory at the end of March has fallen to the lowest levels on record, 0.1 to 0.2 months for homes priced $200K to $400K (3 to 6 days), and no higher that 0.7 days on homes priced to $900K. Home priced $1M and higher are scarce as well, 1.5 months inventory on average. Townhomes and condos follow a similar pattern. Scroll down for more details. We have heard for months and months that we are in this low inventory pattern, but we might call this “lowest” inventory, at least for the modest priced homes.
So buyers must continue honing their musical chairs skills from their early days. And continue in the face of rising interest rates. I wrote in the January letter that mortgage interest rates were “inching towards 3.75%” but as of this date, conventional mortgages are hovering around 5.0% to 5.25%. Rates at this level will dampen the enthusiasm of discretionary buyers, those who are trading up or downsizing, but for those relocating and in a must-buy situation, it might be a little tough.
How much of an impact will higher prices, lower inventory and higher mortgage rates have on our market? Looking at the submarket data below, March saw large reductions in sales totals versus year ago in the 17 markets I track, due mostly to availability. Now we should see an additional influence from interest rates. Sellers may want to take a harder look at asking prices, but with the large number of buyers seeking a new home, sellers might expect to land a cash buyer, which has become fairly common this spring, and avoid price reductions to offset higher monthly mortgage payments. What April numbers will tell us is how large a part interest rates and prices are playing in this complex purchase decision.
Below is a summary of sales activity for 17 sample submarkets. DOM is days on market
Overall Market (North Texas):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 7%, median price up 21%, DOM 31, down 23%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales up 10%, median price up 22%, DOM 30, down 17%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 1%, median price up 22%, DOM 31, down 21%
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 29%, median price up 8%, DOM 45, down 35%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 15%, median price up 5%, DOM 33, down 52%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales up 2%, median price up 7%, DOM 41, down 44%
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 31%, median price down 2%, DOM 45, down 43%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 49%, median price up 3%, DOM 40, down 13%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 40%, median price down 2%, DOM 39, down 47%
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 10%, median price up 8%, DOM 26, down 43
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 10%, median price up 15%, DOM 27, down 13
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 10%, median price up 9%, DOM 29, down 24
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 34%, median price down 1%, DOM 43, down 45%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 48%, median price up 27%, DOM 32, down 48%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 40%, median price up 4%, DOM 36, down 56%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 6%, median price up 23%, DOM 34, down 11%.
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 22%, median price up 35%, DOM 17, down 62%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 14%, median price up 26%, DOM 27, down 37%
Northwest Dallas (incl Midway Hollow):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 13%, median price up 19%, DOM 27, down 41%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 33%, median price up 23%, DOM 25, down 39%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 8%, median price up 17%, DOM 29, down 34%
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 32%, median price up 16%, DOM 27, down 53%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 10%, median price up 22%, DOM 28, down 36%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 15%, median price up 17%, DOM 31, down 39%
Plano:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 34%, median price up 21%, DOM 24, down 27%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 32%, median price up 35%, DOM 14, down 46%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 27%, median price up 23%, DOM 20, down 35%
Frisco:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 27%, median price up 34%, DOM 21, down 28%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 14%, median price up 37%, DOM 23, down 21%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 17%, median price up 39%, DOM 22, down 33%
Richardson:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 14%, median price up 12%, DOM 20, down 46%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 29%, median price up 28%, DOM 22, down 24%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 13%, median price up 19%, DOM 23, down 32%
Southlake:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 47%, median price up 36%, DOM 40, down 5%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 30%, median price up 18%, DOM 27, down 25%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 30%, median price up 27%, DOM 19, down 54%
Coppell:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 25%, median price up 29%, DOM 19, down 63%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 23%, median price up 22%, DOM 11, down 66%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 22%, median price up 24%, DOM 20, down 51%
Allen:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 24%, median price up 47%, DOM 19, unchanged
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 19%, median price up 37%, DOM 13, down 28%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 19%, median price up 36%, DOM 20, down 23%
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 9%, median price up 13%, DOM 32, down 59%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 7%, median price up 17%, DOM 33, up 6%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales unchanged, median price up 21%, DOM 34, unchanged
Cedar Hill:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales up 61%, median price up 22%, DOM 23, down 28%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 16%, median price up 37%, DOM 28, down 20%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales unchanged, median price up 27%, DOM 25, down 28%
Carrollton/Farmers Branch:
Feb 22 vs 21: Sales down 5%, median price up 28%, DOM 21, down 25%
Mar 22 vs 21: Sales down 17%, median price up 23%, DOM 22, down 8%
YTD 22 vs 21: Sales down 11%, median price up 21%, DOM 23, down 32%
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2022 vs 2021:
$200-299K (21.3% of sales): down 36%, 0.2 months inventory
$300-399K (26.7% of sales): up 19%, 0.2 months inventory
$400-499K (16.8% of sales): up 40%, 0.2 months inventory
$500-599K (9.3% of sales): up 67%, 0.3 months inventory
$600-699K (5.3% of sales): up 49%, 0.4 months inventory
$700-799K (3.3% of sales): up 63%, 0.3 months inventory
$800-899K (2.2% of sales): up 76%, 0.5 months inventory
$900-999K (1.4% of sales): up 86%, 0.7 months inventory
$1MM and up (3.6% of sales): up 18%, 1.5 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2022 vs 2021:
$200-299K (25.1% of sales): 457 units vs 518 units year ago, 0.1 months inventory
$300-399K (21.4% of sales): 390 units vs 415 units year ago, 0.2 months inventory
$400-499K (16.5% of sales): 301 units vs 197 units year ago, 0.2 months inventory
$500-599K (6.4% of sales): 117 units vs 74 units year ago, 0.6 months inventory
$600-699K (3.6% of sales): 66 units vs 34 units year ago, 0.2 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): 24 units vs 16 units year ago, 0.6 months inventory
$800-899K (1.3% of sales): 23 units vs 10 units year ago, 1.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.7% of sales): 13 units vs 9 unit year ago, 1.2 months inventory
$1MM+ (2.2% of sales): 40 units vs 31 units year ago, 3.3 months inventory