As big a year as this was for real estate sales, over 117,000 single family homes changed hands, it just missed topping total sales in 2020. Dallas area sales were down 1% in 2021, but prices continued their remarkable run, up 18% vs 2020. Newcomers to Dallas probably cannot appreciate the appreciation in sales, prices and the velocity of those sales. For decades, a typical sales cycle would take 180 days from listing to closing, and buyers would have 30-40 homes to casually tour and from which to choose. I know some of you are nodding your heads! But the DFW area is different now, with northern suburbs racing to the Red River, eastern suburbs sprouting up in farm land in Kaufman County and once sleepy southern suburbs filling the gaps along I-20 and deep into Ellis County.
There are a lot of reasons for this. DFW Airport takes a lot of credit. Opened for business in the early 70’s, this airport attracted hundreds of corporate relocations and the employees and families to run them. Texas’ central location appealed to distributors of goods, helping to create a major center for trade. Our state government contributed by permanently banning an income tax and keeping its pledge to tone down regulations. And the people have discovered the many advantages of Texas residency, and they are still coming.
So, here we are. My office, the 350 or so agents in my Allie Beth Allman office, sold 3.8 billion dollars (with a “b”) worth of homes to you and hundreds of others in 2021, for which we are very grateful. Are these last two years of growth in the Metroplex the new normal? I would think we might temper the pace a bit, but I don’t think we will change the upward direction. I am anxious to see what the new year brings.
Below is a summary of sales activity for 17 sample submarkets. DOM is days on market
Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 3%, median price up 20%, DOM 30, down 25%
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 4%, median price up 18%, DOM 27, down 29%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 1%, median price up 18%, DOM 27, down 43%
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales up 13%, median price up 12%, DOM 43, down 39%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 24%, median price down 21%, DOM 50, down 32%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 53%, median price up 12%, DOM 57, down 16%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 34%, median price up 35%, DOM 27, down 60%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 10%, median price down 16%, DOM 35, down 58%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 3%, median price up 20%, DOM 46, down 32%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 5%, median price up 8%, DOM 30, down 23.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 11%, median price up 3%, DOM 32, unchanged.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 3%, median price up 10%, DOM 27, down 39%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 10%, median price down 6%, DOM 41, down 61%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 33%, median price up 69%, DOM 57, down 3%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 10%, median price up 13%, DOM 52, down 36%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 11%, median price up 23%, DOM 29, down 36%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 7%, median price up 25%, DOM 22, up 45%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 14%, median price up 18%, DOM 26, down 40%.
Northwest Dallas (incl Midway Hollow):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 3%, median price up 23%, DOM 26, down 40%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 2%, median price down 10%, DOM 28, down 26%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 15%, median price up 16%, DOM 29, down 37%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 21%, median price up 21%, DOM 33, down 6%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 11%, median price up 11%, DOM 27, down 13%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 4%, median price up 18%, DOM 30, down 29%.
Plano:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 18%, median price up 17%, DOM 22, down 35%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 11%, median price up 25%, DOM 20, down 38%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales unchanged, median price up 20%, DOM 20, down 49%.
Frisco:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 21%, median price up 39%, DOM 26, down 32%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 30%, median price up 39%, DOM 19, down 47%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 9%, median price up 28%, DOM 20, down 57%.
Richardson:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales up 19%, median price up 16%, DOM 28, down 40%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales unchanged, median price up 13%, DOM 22, down 31%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales unchanged, median price up 17%, DOM 23, down 30%
Southlake:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 30%, median price up 13%, DOM 19, down 71%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 32%, median price up 22%, DOM 34, down 48%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 2%, median price up 28%, DOM 25, down 52%.
Coppell:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales up 19%, median up 25%, DOM 41, up 46%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 2%, median price up 43%, DOM 21, down 52%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 4%, median price up 17%, DOM 23, down 38%.
Allen:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 8%, median price up 23%, DOM 23, down 28%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales down 27%, median price up 31%, DOM 23, down 8%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 6%, median price up 12%, DOM 17, down 58%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 3%, median price up 25%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 11%, median price up 13%, DOM 28, down 26%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales down 5%, median price up 19%, DOM 28, down 52%.
Cedar Hill:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales up 50%, median price up 5%, DOM 25, down 22%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 51%, median price up 18%, DOM 20, up 39%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 5%, median price up 18%, DOM 24, down 43%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 7%, median price up 22%, DOM 37, down 10%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 3%, median price up 25%, DOM 25, down 50%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 1%, median price up 25%, DOM 33, down 37%.
Carrollton/Farmers Branch:
Dec 21 vs 20: Sales down 4%, median price up 16%, DOM 23, down 28%.
Nov 21 vs 20: Sales up 6%, median price up 17%, DOM 25, down 7%.
YTD 21 vs 20: Sales up 1%, median price up 15%, DOM 20, down 38%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2021 vs 2020:
$200-299K (27.5% of sales): down 24%, 0.5 months inventory
$300-399K (25.1% of sales): up 13%, 0.6 months inventory
$400-499K (14.6% of sales): up 35%, 0.8 months inventory
$500-599K (7.7% of sales): up 51%, 0.9 months inventory
$600-699K (4.6% of sales): up 72%, 0.9 months inventory
$700-799K (2.6% of sales): up 76%, 1.0 months inventory
$800-899K (1.6% of sales): up 69%, 1.1 months inventory
$900-999K (1.0% of sales): up 58%, 1.2 months inventory
$1MM and up (3.4% of sales): up 71%, 1.7 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2021 vs 2020:
$200-299K (26.3% of sales): 2367 units vs 1961 units year ago, 0.7 months inventory
$300-399K (23.2% of sales): 2095 units vs 1455 units year ago, 0.9 months inventory
$400-499K (12.8% of sales): 1152 units vs 584 units year ago, 1.1 months inventory
$500-599K (5.1% of sales): 463 units vs 228 units year ago, 1.3 months inventory
$600-699K (2.1% of sales): 188 units vs 87 units year ago, 1.4 months inventory
$700-799K (1.1% of sales): 102 units vs 43 units year ago, 1.3 months inventory
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): 57 units vs 27 units year ago, 3.8 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 36 units vs 16 unit year ago, 2.3 months inventory
$1MM+ (1.7% of sales): 153 units vs 72 units year ago, 5.7 months inventory
November home sales in our greater Dallas area were slightly ahead of last year, up 4%, while the median sales price held steady, up 18% vs year ago. With the average days on market continuing to run less than 30 days, it’s a sign that we are not yet releasing our grip on this sellers’ market. Where the median sales prices are higher, buyers are still able and willing to pay more for those available homes. Where median sales prices are lower, buyers are choosing to buy a less expensive house than those sold last year, likely due to fewer homes to choose from and/or a reluctance to bid higher than the asking price. In this slower holiday season, the days on market and sales numbers can tip you off on which scenario is in play in which submarket.
One important influence on sales going into 2022 will be interest rates. The Federal Reserve has indicated a desire to raise rates, perhaps as many as three times next year. While the Fed doesn’t doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, it certainly influences them. If you are contemplating a purchase next year, have a conversation with your favorite mortgage broker regarding potential impacts.