Now that OPEC has announced no reduction in the 30 million barrels of oil it’s member countries pump each month, oil prices took another dip, this time to $66/barrel, as of this writing. The burning question is what impact this will have on the Texas economy and the related housing industry. Oil industry income trickles through almost all economic activity in the state, and when higher-cost wells are capped as they become unprofitable, there will be some slowing in our growth rate here and the rest of the state. Had this occurred a couple of decades or more ago, it would be a bigger story. But Dallas’ economy is well diversified, and the drop from $117/barrel earlier this year to $66/barrel will be buffered by our other growth industries and by higher consumer disposable income.
Energy jobs rank down the list in sheer numbers, with more job growth found in the trade, transportation and utilities industries, followed by construction, education, health services and leisure and hospitality. Since housing expansion is highly correlated to job growth, Texas’ record 421,000 new jobs created over the last 12 months (1 out of every 6 in the U.S.) will continue to boost the housing business until and/or if there is a dimming on the economic front caused by energy prices. Meanwhile, enjoy the lower gasoline prices and be kind to your oil industry buddies.
So, in October, Dallas’ home sales increased 13% over last year, and median sales prices increased 7%. Interest rates have actually edged slightly downward over the last 6 weeks, and this has been a nice surprise to home buyers out there. October’s nice numbers were not enough to pull most of the submarkets out of negative territory, vs 2013 YTD numbers. Only Northwest Dallas and Rockwall/Heath are ahead of 2013 sales figures. In every case of the 15 markets I track, median sales prices are higher than year ago and half are up double digits. What is interesting is the lengthening of the days on market in October. This is measured against the preceding month, so it’s not surprising that this is probably a seasonal reaction, going into our slower sales months of Nov-Jan.
Below are the stats for the individual sub-markets I track. I am happy to delve into this with you in more detail. Call me at my Allie Beth Allman office if you have any questions!
Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 13%, med price up 7%, DOM n/a, up n/a.
YTD 14 vs 13: Sales unchanged, med price up 7%, DOM 58, up 2%
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 19%, med price up 16%, DOM 56, up 37%
YTD vs 13: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 56, down 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 7%, med price up 11%, DOM 62, up 2%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 11%, med price up 12%, DOM 56, down 3%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 3%, med price up 13%, DOM 42, up 5%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 11%, med price up 9%, DOM 40, down 18%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 61%, DOM 104, up 41%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 18%, med price up 14%, DOM 72, up 16%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 10%, med price up 7%, DOM 46, up 15%
YTD vs 13: Sales down 12%, med price up 7% DOM 35, down 30%.
Northwest Dallas:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 8%, med price up 17%, DOM 38, down 19%.
YTD vs 13: Sales up 3%, med price up 9%, DOM 40, down 18%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 16%, med price up 29%, DOM 47, down 2%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 2%, med price up 12%, DOM 36, down 16%.
Plano:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 30%, med price up 12%, DOM 35, down 10%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 7%, med price up 9%, DOM 31, down 21%.
Frisco:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 7%, med price up 11%, DOM n/a, down n/a.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 11%, DOM n/a, down n/a.
Richardson:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 7%, med price down 1%, DOM 42, up 62%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 31, down 11%.
Southlake:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 15%, med price up 3%, DOM 72, up 22%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 11%, med price up 13%, DOM 48, down 16%.
Coppell:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 23%, med price up 12%, DOM 54, up 29%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 11%, DOM 33, up 3%.
Allen:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 13%, med price up 13%, DOM 51, up 31%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 3%, med price up 3%, DOM 34, down 11%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales up 34%, med price up 7%, DOM 68, up 8%.
YTD vs 13: Sales up 2%, med price up 8%, DOM 57, down 8%.
Cedar Hill:
Oct 14 vs 13: Sales down 2%, med price up 1%, DOM 60, up 40%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 7%, med price up 12%, DOM 59, up 4%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2014 vs 2013:
$200-299K (22.9% of sales): up 11%, 2.1 months inventory
$300-399K (10.6% of sales): up 10%, 3.2 months inventory
$400-499K (5.2% of sales): up 14%, 4.2 months inventory
$500-599K (2.4% of sales): up 12%, 5.0 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): up 16%, 5.8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.8% of sales): up 12%, 7.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): up 14%, 7.8 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): up 31%, 8.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.2% of sales): up 15%, 10.2 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2014 vs 2013.
$200-299K (20.0% of sales): 1028 units vs 937 units year ago, 2.5 months inventory
$300-399K (9.1% of sales): 469 units vs 375 units year ago, 3.5 months inventory
$400-499K (4.0% of sales): 207 units vs 183 units year ago, 4.5 months inventory
$500-599K (1.7% of sales): 87 units vs 92 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): 35 units vs 29 units year ago, 6.9 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 29 units vs 31 units year ago, 7.9 months inventory
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): 28 units vs 17 units year ago, 3.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 10 units vs 10 units year ago, 7.0 months inventory
$1MM + (1.0% of sales): 51 units vs 41 units year ago, 11.4 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540