Great rates, low inventory. That’s been the consistent theme throughout this year, and mortgage rates have taken another dip this month, to the lowest level since April 2013. With no inflation on the horizon (at least less than 2%), the Federal Reserve just this week left the status quo in place. There is no definitive date on which the Fed will raise interest rates. So it’s a great time to buy and may be a good time to refinance. (If you need a lender recommendation, call me). But, what about the low inventory situation, you ask? In November, there were 18,461 homes listed, the lowest number in more than 15 years. Well, there are fewer properties to choose from, but there are homes on the market. And contracts are produced every month.
It appears that the housing market next year will see a repeat of 2014 and 2013. Increasing prices and fewer choices. We really would like to see more listings in the first quarter, to bring up the months’ inventory, which ranges from just 2 months at the $200-299k level to just 8-9 months at the higher price points. It wasn’t long ago, as I recall writing in this blog, that we saw 55-60 months inventory at the higher price points.
The housing forecast from Realtor.com says DFW will be #1 in household growth in the next five years. Millennials will be responsible for 2/3 of total household formation and will account for 65% of first time homebuyers in 2015. Much of this is due to high rental rates. Zillow says that homebuyers will spend 15% of income for a typical mortgage vs 30% on rent. Last quarter, it was 31% more affordable to buy than in the pre-bubble years and 20% less affordable to rent. I’ll be back with the year end totals in mid-January.
Below are the 11-month stats for the individual sub-markets I track. I am happy to delve into this with you in more detail. Call me at my Allie Beth Allman office if you have any questions!
Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 1%, med price up 12%, DOM 55, down 7%.
YTD 14 vs 13: Sales unchanged, med price up 7%, DOM 57, unchanged.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 16%, med price down 6%, DOM 65, down 19%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 2%, med price up 1%, DOM 57, down 12%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 28%, med price up 16%, DOM 73, down 8%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 13%, med price up 12%, DOM 57, down 5%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales unchanged, med price up 4%, DOM 42, down 22%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 10%, med price up 8%, DOM 38, down 17%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 4%, med price up 14%, DOM 71, up 14%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 17%, med price up 14%, DOM 72, up 14%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 25%, med price up 17%, DOM 50, down 6%
YTD vs 13: Sales down 11%, med price up 8% DOM 36, down 28%.
Northwest Dallas:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 41%, med price up 12%, DOM 47, down 6%.
YTD vs 13: Sales up 5%, med price up 9%, DOM 41, down 16%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 22%, med price up 6%, DOM 35, down 10%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 1%, med price up 11%, DOM 36, down 14%.
Plano:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 11%, med price up 21%, DOM 35, down 8%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 32, down 18%.
Frisco:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 2%, med price up 3%, DOM 37, down 20%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 130, up 210%.
Richardson:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 39%, med price up 12%, DOM 38, down 3%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 9%, med price up 9%, DOM 32, down 9%.
Southlake:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 28%, med price down 4%, DOM 122, up 61%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 13%, med price up 13%, DOM 52, down 10%.
Coppell:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 23%, med price up 4%, DOM 30, down 44%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 8%, med price up 11%, DOM 33, unchanged.
Allen:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 1%, med price up 12%, DOM 51, up 28%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 2%, med price up 4%, DOM 36, down 5%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales up 8%, med price up 13%, DOM 81, up 11%.
YTD vs 13: Sales up 3%, med price up 8%, DOM 58, down 8%.
Cedar Hill:
Nov 14 vs 13: Sales down 27%, med price down 6%, DOM 43, down 19%.
YTD vs 13: Sales down 8%, med price up 11%, DOM 58, up 4%.
Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me!
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2014 vs 2013:
$200-299K (23.0% of sales): up 11%, 2.0 months inventory
$300-399K (10.7% of sales): up 10%, 2.3 months inventory
$400-499K (5.1% of sales): up 14%, 4.0 months inventory
$500-599K (2.3% of sales): up 10%, 4.9 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): up 17%, 5.5 months inventory
$700-799K (0.8% of sales): up 16%, 7.0 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): up 9%, 7.7 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 30%, 7.7 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.2% of sales): up 14%, 9.7 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2014 vs 2013.
$200-299K (20.2% of sales): 1115 units vs 998 units year ago, 2.3 months inventory
$300-399K (9.0% of sales): 500 units vs 400 units year ago, 3.8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.9% of sales): 215 units vs 202 units year ago, 4.8 months inventory
$500-599K (1.6% of sales): 89 units vs 98 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 43 units vs 37 units year ago, 5.9 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 32 units vs 31 units year ago, 7.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 28 units vs 18 units year ago, 7.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 12 units vs 11 units year ago, 7.3 months inventory
$1MM + (1.0% of sales): 56 units vs 43 units year ago, 12.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540