We continue to experience a very strong housing market across Dallas, with sales up 7% over last April and up 4% year-to-date. Our sales would be even higher if there were a larger inventory of homes available to buy and if prices weren’t accelerating so quickly. Nationwide, sales of existing homes in May fell 3.3%, a reminder that the economic freedom we enjoy in Texas is bringing more corporate relocations and more job seekers to our state and to the Metroplex. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also blamed the softness on “lagging supply relative to demand and the upward pressure it is putting on prices”. No doubt that is true–and this condition exists in spades here in Dallas. We still managed to push up sales in April and at higher price levels.
Our median sales prices were up 14% in April and up 11% year-to-date. Inventory is down to a month and a half, a severe condition given the “norm” of 6 months. The result has been multiple offers on new listings and contract prices exceeding list prices in many instances. Appraisers have been struggling to justify some of these prices, as they look backward for sales comps. So not all the contracts are closing, also affecting the actual rate of increase in unit sales. In May, nationally, NAR reported that 40% of properties sold went at or above asking price, the highest since NAR began tracking this statistic.
The mix of sales by type of buyer is interesting: The first-time homebuyer share of sales in April was 30%, investor share 14%, and the “all cash” buyer share of sales 24%.
So, the rising prices beg the question, “are we heading for another bubble burst”?. Well no, not until there is a larger inventory with speculators looking for flip opportunities. This is not our market. Buyers are owner-occupiers for the most part, and there are more buyers looking for a home as a permanent residence, not as a financial play.
Okay, well what about the slump in oil prices. Dallas is not the “oil town” of the 80’s anymore. Only 1% of Dallas’ employment is in the oil and gas industry, per Coldwell Banker Real Estate. (Of course, there are many investors in this industry here!). It might take a bite out of the very high end market, but so far there is no indication that this will be a negative factor. Low interest rates, continued employment gains and pent-up demand, per the National Assn of Home Builders, will keep this ball rolling they say.
Here is a look at home sales by submarket that I track. DOM is “Days on Market”
Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 7%, med price up 14%, DOM 46, down 13%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 4%, med price up 11%, DOM 53, down 12%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 27%, med price up 6%, DOM 45, down 34%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 13%, med price up 2%, DOM 53, down 22%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 16%, med price up 16%, DOM 64, up 21%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 3%, med price up 11%, DOM 59, down 8%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales down 5%, med price up 9%, DOM 33, down 11%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 5%, med price up 14%, DOM 39, down 5%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 31%, med price unchanged, DOM 60, down 24%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 2%, med price up 19%, DOM 58, down 24%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 19%, med price up 2%, DOM 26, down 4%
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 6%, med price up 9% DOM 41, unchanged.
Northwest Dallas:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 13%, med price up 18%, DOM 33, down 15%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 3%, med price up 8%, DOM 42, down 13%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales down 17%, med price up 4%, DOM 43, up 95%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 7%, med price up 14%, DOM 42, up 17%.
Plano:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 17%, med price up 11%, DOM 23, down 26%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales unchanged, med price up 10%, DOM 33, down 15%.
Frisco:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales unchanged, med price up 11%, DOM 31, down 24%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales down 5%, med price up 9%, DOM 37, down 21%.
Richardson:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales down 2%, med price up 9%, DOM 25, down 24%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 6%, med price up 15%, DOM 30, down 25%.
Southlake:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales down 22%, med price up 1%, DOM 65, up 30%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 2%, med price up 6%, DOM 79, up 30%.
Coppell:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 11%, med price up 7%, DOM 50, up 85%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 4%, med price up 9%, DOM 56, up 47%.
Allen:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 4%, med price up 7%, DOM 32, up 23%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 1%, med price up 11%, DOM 42, up 17%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 18%, med price up 7%, DOM 49, down 22%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 55, down 13%.
Cedar Hill:
Apr 15 vs 14: Sales up 22%, med price down 5%, DOM 50, down 11%.
YTD 15 vs 14: Sales up 11%, med price up 2%, DOM 56, down 11%.
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Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2015 vs 2014:
$200-299K (23.9% of sales): up 19%, 2.4 months inventory
$300-399K (11.7% of sales): up 24%, 3.1 months inventory
$400-499K (5.9% of sales): up 32%, 4.3 months inventory
$500-599K (2.6% of sales): up 23%, 6.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.5% of sales): up 17%, 6.8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.9% of sales): up 34%, 7.8 months inventory
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): up 20%, 9.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 17%, 9.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.3% of sales): up 10%, 13.1 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2015 vs 2014.
$200-299K (20.8% of sales): 219 units vs 216 units year ago, 2.1 months inventory
$300-399K (10.9% of sales): 203 units vs 142 units year ago, 3.1 months inventory
$400-499K (5.4% of sales): 100 units vs 78 units year ago, 3.4 months inventory
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 37 units vs 27 units year ago, 5.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.1% of sales): 20 units vs 9 units year ago, 5.8 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): 10 units vs 11 units year ago, 7.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 13 units vs 8 units year ago, 7.1 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 3 units vs 3 units year ago, 18.7 months inventory
$1MM + (1.2% of sales): 23 units vs 13 units year ago, 12.2 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540