Dallas Home Sales Stats for September/October 2016

Here we are at the final turn to the finish line for 2016, and it will go down as another record year for homes sales and higher home values in the North Texas market.  Through October, home sales are up 5% and median sales prices up 10%.  We’ve discussed the reasons often:  680 people per day moving to Texas, with a third of those to DFW, while new home construction is mired at half the historical pace.  Much of the higher sales volume is found in the newer suburbs, where prices are more affordable for middle income families. Indeed, Frisco is the fastest growing city in the U.S. and with the highest job growth, at 5.3% per WalletHub.  But while Dallas ranks as one of the two hottest home building markets in the country (per economists at the Dallas Builders Assn), the race for home availability to keep up with the population growth is lagging behind.  (Partly to blame is greater municipal regulation and fees on lot developers). Fun Fact: DFW’s population of 7.1 million is projected to grow to 10.9 million in 2040.

It is true that the state economy has slowed, but economists at the A&M Real Estate Center continue to say DFW is the #1 job market in the U.S.  More jobs mean more people.  More people means more housing. The guys that spend their days studying all of this say the growth in home sales in 2017 will be slower (but still growing), and the growth rate in price will be slower (but still growing).  I’m not so sure it will be slower. We are expected to have more first-time home buyers as Millennials get into gear. They now represent 52% of prospective buyers looking to purchase in 2017.  And we’re promised more economic growth initiatives by the incoming Administration.  The wild card might be mortgage rates. They got a major boost coming out of the election, with the national average rising from 3.5% to 4.25% and Dallas area rates rising to 3.75%.  We may have more to say about his next month, but I think it’s safe to say we’re in for an exciting ride.

Here is a look at home sales by submarket that I track.  DOM is “Days on Market”. For details on Las Colinas and Kessler Park, call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Overall Market (North Texas):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 13%, DOM 42, down 5%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 11%, med price up 12%, DOM 39, down 3%

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 5%, med price up 10%, DOM 42, down 7%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 21%, med price up 6%, DOM 38, up 19%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 3%, med price up 15%, DOM 39, up 44%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price up 4%, DOM 37, down 5%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 39%, med price up 9%, DOM 79, up 49%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 51%, med price up 5%, DOM 82, up 39%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 66, up 22%.

East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 8%, med price up 20%, DOM 34, up 3%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 24%, DOM 27, down 10%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 7%, DOM 34, up 3%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 52%, DOM 54, down 26%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 36%, med price up 15%, DOM 21, up 37%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 1%, DOM 57, up 2%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 11%, med price up 7%, DOM 32, down 6%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price down 3%, DOM 32, down 24%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price up 9%,  DOM 33, down 3%.

Northwest Dallas:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 38%, DOM 56, up 75%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 2%, med price up 12%, DOM 25, down 17%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%,  med price up 13%, DOM 35, up 6%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 13%, med price up 17%, DOM 40, up 14%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 21%, med price up 10%, DOM 43, up 16%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 37, up 9%.

Plano:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 13%, med price up 12%, DOM 31, up 7%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 29, up 16%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 3%, med price up 6%, DOM 29, up 7%.

Frisco:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 26%, med price up 9%, DOM 44, up 7%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 14%, DOM 42, up 27%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 38, up 15%.

Richardson:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 29%, med price up 8%, DOM 27, unchanged.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 4%, me price up 18%, DOM 24, up 4%

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price up 11%, DOM 23, down 8%.

Southlake:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price down 6%, DOM 64, up 36%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales unchanged, med price down 5%, DOM 56, down 15%10

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price up 3%, DOM 59, unchanged.

Coppell:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 4%, med price down 2%, DOM 36, down 8%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 21%, med price up 3%, DOM 31, down 11%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 10%, DOM 40, unchanged.

Allen:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales down 3%, med price up 11%, DOM 31, down 16%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales down 10%, med price up 4%; DOM 36, down 16%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 5%, med price up 6%, DOM 31, down 21%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 1%, med price up 15%, DOM 42, up 11%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 28%, med price up 11%, DOM 41, down 15%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 3%, med price up 9%, DOM 43, down 9%.

Cedar Hill:

Oct 16 vs 15: Sales up 12%, med price up 15%, DOM 31, down 11%.

Sep 16 vs 15: Sales up 9%, med price up 10%, DOM 34, down 8%.

YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 13%, med price up 14%, DOM 38, down 17%.

For Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015:

$200-299K (28.0% of sales): up 18%, 1.3 months inventory

$300-399K (14.6% of sales): up 21%, 2.7 months inventory

$400-499K (7.1% of sales): up 24%, 4.0 months inventory

$500-599K (3.3% of sales): up 21%, 4.7 months inventory

$600-699K (1.7% of sales): up 18%, 5.6 months inventory

$700-799K (1.0% of sales): up 15%, 6.6 months inventory

$800-899K (0.6% of sales): up 3%, 7.3 months inventory

$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 4%, 8.7 months inventory

$1MM and up (1.3% of sales): up 10%, 11.5 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015.

$200-299K (24.1% of sales): 1307 units vs 1227 units year ago, 2.0 months inventory

$300-399K (13.0% of sales): 705 units vs 583 units year ago, 4.1 months inventory

$400-499K (5.9% of sales): 322 units vs 264 units year ago, 6.9 months inventory

$500-599K (2.7% of sales): 146 units vs 108 units year ago, 5.4 months inventory

$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 74 units vs 58 units year ago, 6.2 months inventory

$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 33 units vs 40 units year ago, 14.2 months inventory

$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 22 unit vs 27 units year ago, 8.6 months inventory

$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 7 units vs 13 units year ago, 21.4 months inventory

$1MM + (0.9% of sales): 48 units vs 61 units year ago, 22.1 months inventory

Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540

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