The first quarter results are impressive–a double digit sales gain in March produced a first quarter with a 16% increase in overall Dallas home sales, with a 9% increase in the median sales price vs year ago. Inventory remains low (actually a 20-year low), ranging from less than a 1 month’s supply in Richardson to less than a 2 month’s supply in Plano, Frisco and Far North Dallas and up to a 6 month’s supply in the pricier markets of Preston Hollow and Park Cities. The “old” rule of thumb was a 6 month’s supply represented a healthy, normal market.
Well, it’s all about jobs. Study after study shows Dallas at the top or near the top nationally for job creation and in-migration. Our very diversified economy attracts corporate relocations and job seekers. The Texas A&M Real Estate Center and The Dallas Morning News real estate editor see nothing on the horizon to interrupt this trend. Yes, the Texas energy sector is hurting, but Dallas is not an energy center.
We are building lots of apartment towers, as you know from just driving around town. We expect to fill them. We are building more homes this year than last, but still far below the pace preceding the financial crisis. It’s a catch-up situation, with materials (cement) and labor in short supply, and with fewer builders left after the crisis.
And, this drives up prices. But, there is a cautionary note on prices, where home price increases are marching ahead at a pace 3 times that of wage/salary increases. Could we reach a point where affordability becomes a problem? Maybe. The market will solve that problem, if it becomes one, as markets always do. Some of the “experts” are predicting a leveling off this year of price increases, letting us all catch our breath. But there is no end in sight for the demand for home ownership here. Bottom line? It’s a great time to be a home owner in Dallas!
Here is a look at home sales by submarket that I track. DOM is “Days on Market”. For details on Las Colinas and Kessler Park, call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Overall Market (North Texas):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 18%, med price up 9%, DOM 48, down 9%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 16%, med price up 9%, DOM 51, down 9%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 10%, med price down 17%, DOM 48, down 13%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 10%, med price up 1%, DOM 45, down 22%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales down 5%, med price down 6%, DOM 62, up 29%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 9%, med price down 10%, DOM 70, up 25%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 28%, med price unchanged, DOM 40, down 2%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 14%, med price unchanged, DOM 41, down 2%.
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 65, up 27%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price down 3%, DOM 62, up 9%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales down 10%, med price up 15%, DOM 42, down 21%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 9%, med price up 13% DOM 42, down 13%.
Northwest Dallas:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 10%, med price up 19%, DOM 45, up 7%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 2%, med price up 13%, DOM 41, down 15%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 31%, med price up 3%, DOM 40, up 8%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 17%, med price up 6%, DOM 40, down 5%.
Plano:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 21%, med price down 2%, DOM 31, down 11%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 12%, med price up 5%, DOM 37, down 5%.
Frisco:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 5%, DOM 46, up 28%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 9%, med price up 5%, DOM 48, up 23%.
Richardson:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales down 6%, med price down 2%, DOM 26, down 4%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 11%, med price up 3%, DOM 30, down 6%.
Southlake:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales down 22%, med price down 4%, DOM 55, down 39%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales down 1%, med price up 2%, DOM 73, down 13%.
Coppell:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 9%, DOM 44, down 2%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 4%, med price up 12%, DOM 57, down 3%.
Allen:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales unchanged, med price up 18%, DOM 42, up 11%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 6%, med price up 8%, DOM 43, down 10%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 13%, med price up 4%, DOM 51, down 14%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 21%, med price up 5%, DOM 56, down 5%.
Cedar Hill:
Mar 16 vs 15: Sales up 38%, med price up 8%, DOM 34, down 42%.
YTD 16 vs 15: Sales up 29%, med price up 14%, DOM 41, down 32%.
For Las Colinas and Kessler Park: Call Me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015:
$200-299K (25.7% of sales): up 27%, 1.6 months inventory
$300-399K (13.5% of sales): up 39%, 2.8 months inventory
$400-499K (6.4% of sales): up 32%, 4.6 months inventory
$500-599K (2.9% of sales): up 39%, 5.8 months inventory
$600-699K (1.6% of sales): up 24%, 6.9 months inventory
$700-799K (0.9% of sales): up 13%, 9.9 months inventory
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): up 15%, 10.4 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 9%, 11.9 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.0% of sales): up 1%, 17.9 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2016 vs 2015.
$200-299K (23.0% of sales): 327 units vs 257 units year ago, 1.5 months inventory
$300-399K (12.2% of sales): 173 units vs 129 units year ago, 3.7 months inventory
$400-499K (5.2% of sales): 74 units vs 72 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$500-599K (2.8% of sales): 40 units vs 26 units year ago, 4.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.4% of sales): 20 units vs 14 units year ago, 7.2 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 8 units vs 7 units year ago, 9.8 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 4 unit vs 6 units year ago, 11.3 months inventory
$900-999K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months inventory
$1MM + (0.9% of sales): 13 units vs 18 units year ago, 21.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540