It’s a good time to be a Buyer! We might be entering a new phase in Dallas home sales, as September sales slipped 7% vs year ago, the steepest year-over-year slide in 7 years. For the first nine months, we are even with last year’s sales. We have had 80+ months of steady sales growth, in many cases double-digit sales growth, much of which was stimulated by ultra-low mortgage interest rates. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that the robust economy we are presently enjoying will continue with the Fed’s eye on inflation. That means a few preemptive hikes in the federal funds rate to keep inflationary tendencies contained. The rate hikes thus far have caused mortgage rates to rise, with the 30-year conforming loan reaching 5%. (Jumbo loans and ARM’s are still available at this date in the mid to upper 4’s).
September’s sales’ slide followed a 1% decline in August and a similar decline in June. Other factors blamed include higher inventory (remember, we were wishing for this condition just a few months ago), higher prices/less affordability, and the new tax law that comes into play in January.
However, Dallas median sales prices continue to increase, although at single digit rates. Prices were up 4% in September vs year ago and up 5% year-to-date.
Now, here is the good news. Most of the weighing down in sales is occurring in the Under $200,000 price point, which accounts for almost half of all Dallas area sales. There is almost nothing in the Under $200’s to buy–investors and residents have it all now. Sales there are down 20-25%. But sales over $200,000 are higher than year ago in all but the $800’s. Homes priced over $1M were up 10% in September. So, we have somewhat higher sales, but also longer selling times.
The bottom line is the market is shifting away from the 7-year seller’s market frenzy and into a more normal buy-sell market, with comfortable inventory, longer DOM, price reductions, and real negotiation. Check out the details below…
Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track. DOM stands for “Days on Market”…
Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 4%, DOM 44 up 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 5%, DOM 44, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 39%, med price up 3%, DOM 44 down 2%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price unchanged, DOM 54, up 13%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 14%, med price down 9%, DOM 100, up 7%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 4%, DOM 66, down 7%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price down 5%, DOM 39, up 8%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 4%, DOM 37 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 33%, DOM 70, up 6%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 15%, DOM 76, up 27%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 9%, DOM 46, up 28%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 38, up 3%.
Northwest Dallas:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 28%, med price up 23%, DOM 48, up 37%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, up 5%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 28%, med price up 12%, DOM 46, up 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 7%, DOM 39, up 18%.
Plano:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 2%, DOM 45, up 32%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 16%.
Frisco:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 20%, med price up 9%, DOM 62, up 24%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 4%, DOM 55, up 25%.
Richardson:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales up 2%, med price up 7%, DOM 27, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 24%.
Southlake:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 22%, med price up 34%, DOM 80, up 70%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 6%, DOM 53, up 6%.
Coppell:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price down 5%, DOM 47, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 2%, DOM 41, down 2%
Allen:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 33%, med price up 9%, DOM 36 down 12%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 2%, DOM 35 up 6%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price down 6%, DOM 55, up 12%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 4%, DOM 51, up 13%.
Cedar Hill:
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price up 18%, DOM 27, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 11%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Sep 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 9%, DOM 31, up 21%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 12%, DOM 42, up 2%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.6% of sales): up 10%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): up 8%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.0% of sales): up 11%, 4.1 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 6%, 4.7 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 7%, 5.7 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 3%, 6.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.7% of sales): down 2%, 6.5 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 6%, 8.4 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 10%, 9.4 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.8% of sales): 1314 units vs 1302 units year ago, 2.7 months inventory
$300-399K (17.8% of sales): 908 units vs 818 units year ago, 4.9 months inventory
$400-499K (7.8% of sales): 399 units vs 380 units year ago, 5.9 months inventory
$500-599K (3.5% of sales): 178 units vs 119 units year ago, 6.3 months inventory
$600-699K (1.3% of sales): 68 units vs 76 units year ago, 9.1 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 30 units vs 34 units year ago, 11.7 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 22 units vs 21 units year ago, 9.0 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 16 units vs 19 units year ago, 9.6 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 54 units vs 59 units year ago, 14.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540