I hope your holiday season is in full gear surrounded by family and friends! As I write this summary of fall home sales activity, we have entered a more balanced market, one that is no longer a hyper seller’s market. This is due to natural market forces that kick in when affordability becomes uncomfortable. Factored into the affordability formula are mortgage interest rates, certainly household incomes, and consumer confidence, including job security. The horses on the runaway stage are pausing for a drink.
It’s an interesting market. Sales are down 1% November year-to-date. Not a bad year overall. But different from the last 5 to 7 years of double-digit sales increases. In all single family price categories over $200,000, sales are up vs year ago, albeit in single digits, with the exception of homes priced in the $900’s, which is off 1%. See below. Sales of condos and townhomes over $600,000 and slightly lower as well. Sales of homes priced $200,000 and higher represent only half of the overall market, so the real softness is in the lower price points, dragging the 29-county North Texas numbers downward. Not that there is no demand for the under $200’s! There are just no homes to be found. Investors, flippers and regular folks have bought them all-hence the lower year-to-year sales comparisons.
So, where do we go from here? Well, the economy in Dallas, in Texas and nationally is on fire. Job openings exceed the number of job hunters, creating the lowest (3.7%) unemployment rate in decades. Company earnings are very healthy. The consumer confidence index is near its highest level in years.
Interest rates are up, but have tapered off the last two weeks to 4.5% to 4.75%. This is still below the long term average of 6-8%, and we will get used to it. But tell that to someone who locked it to 3% a few years ago and just might decide to postpone downsizing for a while.
The Texas Real Estate Center at A&M produced a chart showing the impact of major tax change legislation on the economy’s performance. After the Kennedy tax overhaul in 1964 and the Reagan tax overhaul in 1986, the national economy roared for the next 5 years before running out of steam. If that holds, the Trump tax overhaul of 2017-2018 could result in a continuance of this years economic performance for another four years. With the DFW metro population projected to grow from 7 million to 10 million people in the next 11 years, we are going to need to build and buy houses, condos, and apartments. We’re in a good place.
Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track. DOM stands for “Days on Market”…
Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 3%, DOM 53 up 10%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 4%, med price up 4%, DOM 48 up 4%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 45, up 6%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price down 1%, DOM 56.
up 14%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 27%, med price up 14%, DOM 51, up 21%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 15%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 40%, med price up 39%, DOM 61, down 19%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 22%, med price up 13%, DOM 96, up 68%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 6%, DOM 67,down 4%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price up 31%, DOM 48, up 33%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 15%, DOM 41, down 7%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 37 up 6%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price down 13%, DOM 94, up 22%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 40%, med price up 3%, DOM 61, down 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 14%, DOM 77, up 26%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 6%, DOM 57, up 50%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 7%, DOM 45, up 29%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 5%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Northwest Dallas:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 38%, med price up 1%, DOM 54, up 35%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales up 31%, med price down 20%, DOM 39, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 29%, med price down 1%, DOM 35, down 35%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 46, down 16%
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 15%, med price up 6%, DOM 40, up 8%.
Plano:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price down 1%, DOM 59, up 34%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 9%, DOM 43, plus 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, up 19%.
Frisco:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 7%, DOM 72, up 31%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 16%, med price up 2%, DOM 71, up 42%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 4%, DOM 58, up 26%.
Richardson:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 4%, DOM 34, up 26%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 9%, DOM 32, up 39%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 7%, DOM 27, up 29%.
Southlake:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 3%, med price up 10%, DOM 69, up 13%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales up 10%, med price up 5%, DOM 54, down 33%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 6%, DOM 55, up 2%.
Coppell:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 63, down 15%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 20%, med price down 13%, DOM 59, unchanged.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price unchanged, DOM 43%, down 7%
Allen:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 63, up 21%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price up 18%, DOM 49, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 40, up 14%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales up 23%, med price up 3%, DOM 65, up 5%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price down 6%, DOM 54, down 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 52, up 11%.
Cedar Hill:
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 48%, med price up 5%, DOM 38, unchanged.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 18, down 45%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 5%, med price up 9%, DOM 30, down 6%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Nov 18 vs 17: Sales down 1%, med price up 13%, DOM 44, up 29%.
Oct 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 4%, DOM 34, down 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 5%, med price up 12%, DOM 42, up 5%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.7% of sales): up 7%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.4% of sales): up 6%, 3.1 months inventory
$400-499K (8.9% of sales): up 8%, 3.9 months inventory
$500-599K (4.1% of sales): up 5%, 4.5 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 3%, 5.5 months inventory
$700-799K (1.2% of sales): up 3%, 5.5 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): up 2%, 5.8 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): down 1%, 7.5 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 8%, 8.9 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.7% of sales): 1560 units vs 1529 units year ago, 2.6 months inventory
$300-399K (17.7% of sales): 1071 units vs 982 units year ago, 5.1 months inventory
$400-499K (8.0% of sales): 483 units vs 460 units year ago, 5.6 months inventory
$500-599K (3.4% of sales): 209 units vs 150 units year ago, 6.1 months inventory
$600-699K (1.3% of sales): 75 units vs 82 units year ago, 10.1 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 38 units vs 37 units year ago, 9.8 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 25 units vs 28 units year ago, 6.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 19 units vs 22 units year ago, 8.7 months inventory
$1MM + (1.1% of sales): 64 units vs 71 units year ago, 15.0 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540