The economy is solidly advancing. The GDP will exceed 3% this year for the first time in 13 years. The unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 50 years. And wages are up 2.8% over the last 12 months. But, Dallas home sales fell 3% in June from year-ago levels, the first decline in year-over-year sales in at least four years.
So, what’s behind the mismatch? June sales are May contracts, which is still the “Spring Market”. You can’t outsmart the free market, and the market says it’s time for a breather. We could probably boil it down to two words: declining affordability. I don’t believe it’s interest rates; they are steady in the mid 4%’s, still an historical bargain. And inventory is building (finally).
Prices are still moving upward, with the median sales price in June up 7%. Demand is still strong. But some folks are being squeezed out of the market, taking an edge off the sales numbers. Note the double-digit sales declines in several markets (below) with median prices holding their own, indicative of healthy demand in the face of struggling sales numbers. I am anxious to see the July numbers, and will report back to you as always!
Here is a glimpse of the activity in the submarkets I regularly track. DOM stands for “Days on Market”…
Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 7%, DOM 38, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 1%, med price up 5%, DOM 45, up 7%.
Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price down 14%, DOM 41, down 16%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 55, up 12%.
Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 64, up 28%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 10%, med price up 5%, DOM 64, down 3%.
East Dallas (incl M’s and Lakewood):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 14%, med price up 11%, DOM 31, unchanged.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 8%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 3%
North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 18%, med price unchanged, DOM 53, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 13%, med price up 9%, DOM 75, up 27%.
Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 19%, med price down 7%, DOM 33, up 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 38, down 5%.
Northwest Dallas:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 23%, med price up 14%, DOM 38, up 9%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 17%, med price up 3%, DOM 39, up 8%.
Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 9%, med price down 1%, DOM 35, up 3%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 7%, med price up 6%, DOM 37, up 16%.
Plano:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 6%, DOM 30, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 3%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Frisco:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 24%, med price up 2%, DOM 46, up 10%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 56, up 24%.
Richardson:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 8%, med price up 19%, DOM 25, up 39%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 4%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 30%.
Southlake:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 7%, med price up 8%, DOM 26, up 4%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 5%, DOM 51, down 9%.
Coppell:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 17%, med price up 5%, DOM 26, down 13%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 3%, med price up 4%, DOM 36, down 18%
Allen:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 28, up 17%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 11%, med price down 1%, DOM 36, up 13%.
Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 6%, med price up 2%, DOM 48, up 20%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales unchanged, med price up 3%, DOM 50, up 11%.
Cedar Hill:
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 23, down 30%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales down 2%, med price up 11%, DOM 33, down 8%.
North Oak Cliff (incl Kessler Park, Stevens Park, Winnetka Heights):
Jun 18 vs 17: Sales up 7%, med price up 18%, DOM 37, down 5%.
YTD 18 vs 17: Sales up 9%, med price up 16%, DOM 45, up 7%.
For Las Colinas: Call me at my Allie Beth Allman & Associates office, 214-563-8540.
Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017:
$200-299K (33.0% of sales): up 12%, 2.2 months inventory
$300-399K (18.6% of sales): up 10%, 3.3 months inventory
$400-499K (9.0% of sales): up 12%, 4.4 months inventory
$500-599K (4.2% of sales): up 7%, 5.2 months inventory
$600-699K (2.2% of sales): up 6%, 6.1 months inventory
$700-799K (1.3% of sales): down 2%, 7.0 months inventory
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): down 1%, 7.6 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): up 8%, 9.9 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.7% of sales): up 4%, 10.4 months inventory
Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2018 vs 2017.
$200-299K (25.6% of sales): 865 units vs 832 units year ago, 2.3 months inventory
$300-399K (18.5% of sales): 625 units vs 530 units year ago, 4.0 months inventory
$400-499K (8.3% of sales): 279 units vs 261 units year ago, 5.0 months inventory
$500-599K (3.6% of sales): 123 units vs 92 units year ago, 6.5 months inventory
$600-699K (1.2% of sales): 45 units vs 90 units year ago, 7.7 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): 19 units vs 21 units year ago, 8.2 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 12 units year ago, 12.9 months inventory
$900-999K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 16 units year ago, 2.8 months inventory
$1MM + (1.4% of sales): 43 units vs 44 units year ago, 11.7 months inventory
Bob Edmonson, Allie Beth Allman & Associates, 214-563-8540